Radar Armenia‘s interlocutor is international affairs expert Shahan Gandaharian.
– The US president announced an indefinite ceasefire with Iran, noting that it will last until negotiation proposals are presented. Why did the US take this step? Was there no other way out, and did it have to withdraw from the war, as many analysts claim, or not?
– I think there are several reasons for taking such a step. First, the absolute victory of the US or the capitulation of Iran is not imminent, and the continuation of hostilities can lead to unpredictable consequences. The economic damage is already huge across the board. The main thing is that by implementing a large naval blockade, Trump wants to push Iran to make a deal. Trump has changed the rules of the war game: blockade rather than attacks until a deal.
– In your opinion, will the ceasefire be maintained, or is the resumption of hostilities possible again?
– There is still a risk of the ceasefire being canceled. Extensions, especially those with indefinite terms, signal a preference for a diplomatic path or a deal, particularly on the part of the United States.
– How does Israel, which, according to many analysts, is still interested in continuing military operations and was the one who instigated the United States to launch such an attack, perceive all this?
– For Israel, neutralizing Iran’s military capabilities is a primary goal. However, the issue has reached a point where Israel will follow Washington. If there is a big deal, Israel will not have much flexibility in determining its steps in this direction.
– However, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Why and what is the goal?
– The Strait of Hormuz is closed bilaterally. A means used by Iran to cause an economic earthquake, and by the United States to paralyze the Iranian economy with a larger blockade. Bilateral economic strikes could be a driving factor in going for a deal. The economic blow has reached China, whose president is urging the lifting of the blockade and the opening of Hormuz.
– When, in your opinion, will the strait be opened, and under what conditions?
– When an agreement is reached, shipping safety is guaranteed, and especially new governance mechanisms are established. It is unrealistic to foresee a time frame.
– How will all this affect the region?
– A difficult economic situation, changing alliance balances, activation of new diplomacy, and especially transformations in the energy sector.
