Radar Armenia’s interlocutor is economist Gagik Makaryan.
– Turkey has officially lifted legal restrictions on direct trade with Armenia since May 11, 2026. The Turkish Foreign Ministry has completed legislative amendments that include Armenia on the list of countries importing Turkish products. In what format was the Armenia-Turkey trade carried out in the past?
– Turkey has never presented our trade with Turkey as an official direction. The Turkish State Statistical Service often reported trade turnover with Armenia as zero because, officially, the borders were closed and there were no diplomatic relations. Therefore, real trade took place through intermediary schemes. Armenian companies purchased Turkish goods, but they were imported into Armenia not directly, but via third countries. For example, companies registered in Dubai or Georgia were often used. The goods were actually purchased by Armenian companies and paid for, but the documents were registered in the name of a company from another country.
– Why was such an intermediary system necessary?
– The reason was that Turkey did not officially acknowledge the existence of trade with Armenia. As a result, it was necessary to “hide” the route by using intermediary companies. This mechanism caused additional costs, logistical complications, and a heavy paperwork burden.
– What impact did this situation have on statistics?
– As a result, it turned out that in official figures, trade between Armenia and Turkey is small, for example, about 250-330 million dollars. However, the real volumes may be larger, since Turkish goods were often registered as imported from third countries. In other words, the statistics did not fully reflect real economic relations.
– What changes as a result of the new regulations?
– In the new situation, it is possible that goods will already be registered directly as being sent to Armenia or Turkey. In other words, the need for mandatory intermediary registration through third countries is eliminated. At the same time, a more simplified registration of goods exported from Armenia to Turkey or via Turkey to third countries is also possible in the opposite direction.
– What impact will this have on statistics?
– The most important change is the statistics themselves. From now on, it will be possible to get a more realistic picture of the actual volume of trade between Armenia and Turkey. This is also important for economic analysis, since the data has been partially distorted until now.
– What impact could it have on the role of Georgia?
– The intermediary trade carried out through Georgia will decrease somewhat, because previously many goods were declared as of Georgian origin (or imported from Georgia). This change could reduce the artificially inflated foreign trade indicators in Georgia.
– Could this have an impact on logistics costs?
– Yes. If the Gyumri-Kars railway or highway is opened in the future, it will significantly reduce freight transportation costs. At the moment, cargo travels a long way through Georgian ports, a time-consuming and expensive process. In the case of a short route, both time and costs could be significantly reduced.
– How much can freight costs be reduced?
– According to preliminary estimates, at least 15 percent, possibly more. The main savings will come from reduced intermediary fees and a simplified logistics path.
– Finally, how do you assess the overall change?
– It is important that we finally get a more transparent and real economic picture. This can have a positive impact on both statistics and logistics and regional economic relations.
