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Is Armenia preparing to attack Azerbaijan?

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan wrote an article addressing the current state of Armenia-Azerbaijan relations.

“The official propaganda of the Republic of Azerbaijan is increasingly focusing on the thesis that Armenia is arming itself, is preparing to attack Azerbaijan, and therefore Azerbaijan has the right to defend itself, to take preventive measures.

If we reproduce these theses of Azerbaijani propaganda more briefly and more simply, everything comes down to the following: Armenia is preparing to attack Azerbaijan. Therefore, Azerbaijan should attack Armenia as a preventive measure.

There are two versions of the origin of these propaganda theses: Either Azerbaijan thinks that Armenia intends to attack it, or it wants to attack and is trying to form the basis for this. In both cases, the basic premise is Azerbaijan’s claim about Armenia’s intention to attack Azerbaijan.

Is Armenia going to attack Azerbaijan?

Any impartial observer can state that the Government of Armenia has left no room for interpretation. I have repeatedly said, and now I consider it necessary to clarify, that the Republic of Armenia is committed to the strategic agreement reached in Prague on October 6, 2022. Under this agreement, Armenia and Azerbaijan recognize each other’s territorial integrity and sovereignty based on the Alma Ata Declaration.

That is, the Republic of Armenia recognizes the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the Republic of Azerbaijan within the territory of the Azerbaijan SSR, and the Republic of Azerbaijan recognizes the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the Republic of Armenia within the territory of the Armenian SSR.

The thesis has already gained de jure force in both states since the regulation “On the joint activities of the Commission on the demarcation of the state border between the Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan and the State Commission on the demarcation of the state border between the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Armenia,” which was ratified in both states, the Alma-Ata Declaration was recorded as the basic principle of the demarcation process between the two countries.

In light of this fact, I have also stated several times that the Republic of Armenia does not set the task of returning by military means more than 200 square kilometers of the territories that are an integral part of the 29 thousand 743 square kilometers of internationally recognized sovereign territory of the Republic of Armenia, which are currently under the occupation of Azerbaijan. The regulation mentioned above has already resolved this issue in principle. There is an honest and objective opportunity to fix it practically in the demarcation process.

In this context, I consider it necessary to emphasize that on the occasion of the 33rd anniversary of the Armenian Army, I announced that our army should not be applied outside the internationally recognized sovereign territory of the Republic of Armenia (this, of course, does not relate to the participation of the RA game-keeping troops in international peacekeeping forces).

Therefore, the theses about Armenia’s intention to attack Azerbaijan are fabricated.

Is the Republic of Armenia arming itself?

The Republic of Armenia is reforming its army by the abovementioned principle: to protect its internationally recognized territorial integrity and sovereignty, including that of Azerbaijan. This is an internationally recognized right of any country, and challenging it is a gross violation of international law.

Do the reforms of the Armenian army have anything to do with Azerbaijan? Both yes and no.

No, because, as I explained above, Armenia has no plan, intention, or goal of military action against Azerbaijan.

Yes, because threats to the security of the Republic of Armenia are generated in Azerbaijan. First, the highest levels of Azerbaijan are making Statements questioning the territorial integrity of the Republic of Armenia in the Prague Agreement.

These statements are most fully formulated in the so-called “Western Azerbaijan” discourse, sponsored by the top leadership of Azerbaijan. In the fundamental documents of the organization of the same name, about 60 percent of the sovereign territory of the Republic of Armenia is called “territories currently under the control of the Republic of Armenia” or “territory currently controlled by the political and legal entity called the Republic of Armenia.”

Now let’s compare this with the theatrical trial underway in Baku, Azerbaijan’s acquisition of billions of dollars in weapons, and official Baku’s aggressive rhetoric, and it will become clear that real threats are being generated in Azerbaijan against the security of the Republic of Armenia.

Solutions

Solutions to this situation are on the table, and they were generated jointly by representatives of Armenia and Azerbaijan as a result of the work. First, the already agreed articles of the peace treaty have fundamentally resolved the issue of not having territorial claims to each other and not making such claims in the future. The signing of the peace treaty forever closed the door for both Armenia and Azerbaijan ever to make territorial claims to each other, which had already been closed in Prague. The agreed part of the peace treaty is sufficiently weighty and ripe for signing. However, the Republic of Armenia has proposed comprehensive solutions for both unagreed articles and awaits Azerbaijan’s positive response.

Moreover, the Republic of Armenia has submitted a written proposal to Azerbaijan on the establishment of mechanisms for mutual arms control and joint investigation of border incidents and is awaiting Azerbaijan’s positive response.

Moreover, the Republic of Armenia has submitted a written proposal to Azerbaijan on implementing international railway transportation from Azerbaijan to Azerbaijan, from Armenia to Armenia, and through Armenia’s territory. It is awaiting Azerbaijan’s positive response.

The Commission and the State Commission for the Demarcation of the State Border between the Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan are working constructively to demarcate the state border and border security between the two countries.

Recently, the Interdepartmental Commission on the Issues of Prisoners of War, Hostages, and Missing (Whereabouts Unknown) Persons of the Republic of Armenia and the State Commission on the Issues of Prisoners of War, Hostages, and Missing Citizens of the Republic of Azerbaijan met.

This means there are no prerequisites for escalation in the region, and all prerequisites for peace have been created. Staged actions and the policy of staging escalations must be abandoned, and institutional peace must be established. Armenia is not only ready for this but will not leave this path.

 

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