Radar Armenia‘s interlocutor is political scientist Davit Stepanyan.
– The US Senate approved the appointment of Senator Marco Rubio as the US Secretary of State. What are the expectations from the new Secretary of State regarding the process of regulating Armenian-Azerbaijani relations?
– Our expectations from the newly appointed Secretary of State are directly related to our actions, whether we will do them or not. Suppose we are talking about the settlement of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations. In that case, I think that Armenia should offer the US and Marco Rubio a mediation role in the settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, or, if not mediation, at least the US should provide us with a space for foreign ministers, and why not, the negotiations at the level of the first parties will take place exclusively on American platforms. This will be a crucial step on our part and will speak about our confidence in the new American administration. Secretary of State Rubio will perceive this step positively because it is an opportunity for American diplomacy to expand in the South Caucasus and continue along the lines that the Biden administration and Anthony Blinken led. If Aliyev agrees to that proposal and at least agrees to conduct the negotiations on American platforms, then very good; if he does not agree, even better because then we get a favorable position in Armenian-American relations and an opportunity to work. And for Aliyev, the opportunity will decrease significantly.
– The new Secretary of State is known for his anti-Russian views. How will this circumstance affect American policy in the South Caucasus, particularly Armenian-Russian and Russian-Azerbaijani?
– The so-called anti-Russian sentiment will affect our region as well. This also depends on us. We should continue to strengthen our integration capabilities within the framework of the EAEU, stay in the CSTO, go to Europe with one foot, and stick to the EAEU with the other. In that case, the American role and their regional policy cannot be in our favor. Let me remind you that yesterday, Trump said very clearly that we are going down this road, and the countries themselves should decide whether they are with the USA or not, whether they are democratic or not. The situation is this. And yes, in this case, anti-Russianness will work in our favor, and its absence in our enemies’ favor.
– Considering the transformation taking place in the world, how likely is it that Azerbaijan will start a new war?
– The transformations you mentioned are not yet active, and it is tough to predict whether they will enter that phase. If we judge from Trump’s speech yesterday, he says that there will be transformations. But during the next 4 years of Trump’s rule, he will talk and threaten more than act. We are talking about the same actors: Russia, China, Panama, and maybe Denmark, from which they want to take Greenland. Trump will try to achieve the goals of American policy with threats. If that serious transformation phase does not begin, I think Azerbaijan’s unleashing a new war will remain only in Aliyev’s darkened brain. At the moment, we cannot say for sure whether it will happen, but at any moment, we should be ready for that war because this is Aliyev’s dream, and he will do everything to achieve it.
Once again, everything depends on our actions or lack thereof. If we can build constructive relations with Trump and the USA and show that we are in the same boat, Aliyev will not be able to do anything to Armenia. If we can’t do it and hang on to the Russian submarine again, Aliyev will have many opportunities. In other words, the situation can be evaluated 50/50.
