Radar Armenia‘s interlocutor is Shahan Gantaharyan, an international scholar.
– Aliyev stated that the weapons that Macron’s government supplies to Armenia are offensive, deadly weapons that pose a practical threat to Azerbaijan, and they cannot be indifferent. How do you interpret Aliyev’s words? Isn’t this a prelude to starting a new war?
– Aliyev realizes that Yerevan is trying to restore the balance of power and wants to get the most out of the victorious positions, knowing that the status quo can be reversed if the situation and circumstances change. This is just one of the endlessly renewed preconditions.
– In contrast to Aliyev, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that the signing of the peace treaty would dispel the concerns of both Armenia and Azerbaijan. Is establishing peace in the region possible only by signing a peace treaty?
– The only guarantee for establishing peace is restoring the balance of power, especially when the neighbor-enemy only talks about the threat of war, torpedoes the process of agreement, and puts forward endless new preconditions. Azerbaijan will strive for peace only when it understands that it will receive a heavy counterattack in case of an attack.
– German Chancellor Olaf Scholz spoke with US President Donald Trump. The parties have admitted that the conflict in Ukraine has lasted “too long,” and it is time to find a way to peace. Do you think the end of the Russian-Ukrainian war is near?
– It is still not clear. They talk about a ceasefire, but it does not work because of the refusal of one side or the other. There is no consensus between the parties to the conflict and among the involved countries. The USA is fighting in three directions: Iran, Russia, and China, to name the main ones. A “strike-negotiation” process is going on with Iran, the rules of economic war are working with China, and the actions against Russia are intensifying for the time being. Wildfires will be in these three directions, but the trends will be maintained. Breakthrough drastic changes are not yet visible.
– Putin announced that Russia would talk to Zelensky if he went to the elections and got legitimacy. Does Putin think that Zelensky will lose if there are elections in Ukraine? In your opinion, does Zelensky have a chance to win the elections?
– Conducting elections in wartime conditions creates questions. If they happen after the ceasefire, it will depend on the results, or rather, on the assessments of the Ukrainian society. In Ukraine, anti-Russian sentiment has reached its peak, and in this sense, Zelensky is perceived as the main anti-Russian.
– Zelensky, referring to Putin’s statements, noted that there will be no ceasefire until Ukraine has security guarantees and strong positions. What is meant by security guarantees, and what does it imply?
– The security guarantee means new constraining instruments from the West to Russia, mainly financial and military support. And from a political point of view, the deployment of foreign forces between the borders of Ukraine and the Russian Federation. The sub-message is that the international family will tighten the sanctions against Moscow. These are the preconditions for Kyiv to agree to a ceasefire.
