Radar Armenia‘s interlocutor is Shahan Gantaharyan, an international scholar.
– The President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, has stated that Armenia should start negotiations and take practical steps towards restoring the fundamental rights of the “Western Azerbaijani” community. How hopeful are such statements that the parties will eventually establish peace?
– Raising the ceiling of demands is a traditional approach for Baku. Renewable conditions and preconditions obscure the visibility of the contract’s conclusion. At first glance, the tactic of mirror claims works. However, I think the main target of the endlessly renewed conditions is the achievement of the Nakhichevan-Azerbaijan connection, as they say, “Zangezuri Corridor.”
– The US Secretary of State has stated that the United States is now preparing to use its tools, including additional sanctions against the “Georgian Dream.” What impact can the US toolkit have, and what changes will it lead to?
– The suspension of the EU procedure is not, in any case, suspension or cancellation. With such decisions, Tbilisi is trying to get playing cards to talk with the USA and Russia. Sanctions pressure the current government to leave the Russian Federation. The suspension is just a stop to recalculate domestic politics and external vectors. It is necessary to discuss the possible scenarios of tightening or applying economic sanctions on Armenia.
– The French National Assembly expressed no confidence in Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s government. How do you interpret this, and is it possible that President Macron will also do so?
– I think the most important node of intra-French anxiety is the economic one. Of course, this depends on the accumulation of other circumstances. Macron had managed to overcome various crises up to this point. The image of the last vote of the Parliament speaks about the fact that the demand for the government’s resignation should be discussed rather than that of the president. All these can lead to early presidential elections. Everything depends on whether Macron will manage to reach a new agreement with the factions or not. I consider that the president can form a new coalition.
– Maria Zakharova stated that Turkey coordinates the expansion processes of “3+3”. What is the probability that “3+3” will become an organization?
– Until now, this format has been consolidated into a 3+2 format. The outcome of events in Georgia can restore the format. Three leading players are trying to coordinate their policies in the Caucasus and the Middle East. It should be noted that the playing cards were mixed there as well because Ankara violated the agreement of Astana and attacked Aleppo. Now, in Doha, the same three will try to redefine the directions. An event in one region can affect another. In this sense, a violation registered in one place will lead to breaches in another. It still needs to be clarified whether the format Ankara proposed will work.
