Radar Armenia‘s interlocutor is Shahan Gantaharyan, an international scholar.
– The 47th US president will be elected on November 5. Considering the recent campaign and polls, what is your impression? Will Harris win or Trump?
– The results of predictive polls indicate that it is a polarized competition, and the candidates are behind each other by several points. Those figures speak about the unpredictability of the result. Remember that the American electoral system has a collegial clause, and the arithmetic of the citizens’ votes and the state voters’ factors are calculated by different rules.
– Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban hopes that Trump will win. If Trump is elected, what geopolitical developments can we witness?
– The US geopolitics is not determined by the candidates or the Republican-Democrat difference. They can affect economic, social, tax, gender equality, educational, and legislative issues, but not the central foreign military policy. The concepts published by the US defense system are for twenty years. Geopolitics is hidden in other centers and institutions: the National Security Council, the administration, the defense system, or the joint system of power-determining institutions. The formula of the general trend is tightening positions against the Russian Federation, reshaping the political map in the Middle East, and sometimes silent, sometimes sharp rivalries with China.
– If Kamala Harris is elected, will the regulation of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations and stable security be guaranteed? Which of the candidates is beneficial for Armenia?
– Harris or Trump, I think it should be remembered that the USA will continue Hv. His behavior of expelling the Russian factor from the Caucasus. And this will affect Armenia. This is the foremost geopolitical direction of the USA and is not determined by the personality of the president or the republican-democratic government. Let’s note here that Trump, speaking about Artsakh, criticized his rival for authorizing ethnic cleansing against the Christian population. At the same time, Harris proposed the return of the rights of the people of Artsakh. It turns out that the USA did not intervene in the depopulation of Artsakh but now promises to support the right of return of the people of Artsakh. In this case, the return of the people of Artsakh is conditioned by the deployment of new international guarantees, which implies a counterbalancing of the Russian factor in the region.
– Should the Armenian side accept the invitation to participate in the COP29 event in Baku, and what will it do to the process of normalizing relations?
– In such conditions, the participation of the Armenian side will be justified if Azerbaijan releases the prisoners, detained persons, and the military-political leadership. Otherwise, Azerbaijan’s hosting of such an international conference will be supported without getting anything.
