Radar Armenia‘s interlocutor is Shahan Gantaharyan, an international scholar.
– According to the circulating information, France will submit a draft resolution to the UN Security Council regarding the humanitarian situation in Nagorno-Karabakh. If the process goes this way, what will change?
– The international family, specifically the collective West, has authorized France to accelerate mediation or guarantee processes in parallel and in opposition to Russia. The Washington and Brussels processes are working under the RF today. In terms of convening an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council or drafting a resolution, official Paris is acting. However, let’s remember that although France initiated an emergency session months ago, no announcement was made. Even now, it is not excluded that the resolution will not be vetoed. But even in the case of adoption, there will not be a breakthrough at once. This is a continuous, long process to undo Russia’s preeminence in the mediation mission.
– The Prime Minister of Armenia announces that reliable information has arrived that plans are being developed to open the Lachin Corridor unilaterally, allowing exit from Nagorno-Karabakh but not allowing entry. What should be done to exclude such a scenario?
– It is not excluded that Baku aimed for this. Baku realizes that it is impossible to rush to sign an agreement according to the rules of the game and the agenda specified by it. Realizes that major players are competing in the region and exploiting the conflict with tasks of maintaining or acquiring spheres of influence. That is why he decided to depopulate Artsakh through a humanitarian crisis or by providing a one-way solution. The first task to prevent such a scenario should be implementing Artsakh’s de-blockade agenda, with the guarantees of international instruments. This is a challenging road. On the one hand, Baku promises humanitarian assistance through Aghdam; on the other hand, it is trying to depopulate Artsakh by providing a one-way exit.
– According to Azerbaijani officials, Ilham Aliyev will not meet Belgian Foreign Minister Haja Lahbib because of his “pro-Armenian position and statements made in Armenia.” What are the messages under this step? What does Aliyev show Armenia and the world?
– Aliyev realizes that due to various circumstances, impunity extends to Azerbaijan. Starting with the war in Ukraine, ending with oil and gas deals, and passing through the tense and conflicted relations between Moscow and Ankara, Azerbaijan knows they will not impose sanctions against it. Instead, he punishes those countries which, according to him, make anti-Azerbaijani statements. This is a message to all those countries that will demand lifting of the blockade of Artsakh from Azerbaijan.
– The meeting of the presidents of Turkey and Russia, Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Vladimir Putin, is scheduled in Sochi. September 4 is mentioned as a possible date. What is the significance of that meeting in the background of geopolitical developments, and what consequences will it have in the Caucasus?
– On the eve of this meeting, keep in mind several circumstances:
• The US is pressuring Ankara to end its relations with Moscow and is threatening it.
• The Turkish veto against Finland has already been lifted. Regarding Sweden’s membership in NATO, Turkey is playing and trying to make a “bazaar.”
• In return, with Moscow’s inspiration and direct order, Damascus demanded the total withdrawal of Turkish troops from Syrian territories.
• The geography of BRICS is expanding. Russia has a significant role there, and Turkey is not involved in that format. BRICS is being transformed from an economic platform to a world-order pole, and in that sense, Moscow and Ankara are in opposite polar fields.
There are other sub-conditions involved with these processes as well. Intense cooperation between Moscow and Ankara is underway.
