Shahin Hajiyev, the editor of the political department of the Azerbaijani “Turan” agency, published an article in which he referred to the possible military actions by Azerbaijan against Nagorno-Karabakh, the scale of the predicted aggression, the possible directions of the attack, and the international response.
Hajiyev noted that Azerbaijan’s goal is to “cleanse Nagorno Karabakh of illegal Armenian military groups.” Hajiyev’s article gives the impression that considering the disbandment of the Nagorno-Karabakh Armed Forces as a reason for war, Azerbaijan is considering the option of direct military action. According to Hajiyev, there are several directions of attack: Martakert, Askeran, and Stepanakert.
According to the article, the primary direction of the attack will be the most protected, the Martakert region, followed by the Martuni region, and Shushi’s attack will surround Stepanakert. According to Hajiyev, capturing Parukh’s strategic positions allowed Azerbaijan to attack without hindrance in the direction of Askeran, cutting off the Martakert-Stepanakert road. According to Hajiyev’s assumption, the possible war can last at least 2 weeks and end with the victory of Azerbaijan, taking into account that Armenia will not be able to assist the population of Nagorno-Karabakh. As a result of the blockade, the latter is wholly deprived of food and any technical nutrition, particularly the fuel necessary for the movement of vehicles.
The most interesting are Hajiyev’s assessments regarding the reaction and role of the international community.
According to the editor of “Turan,” the probability of a third party’s intervention is low. He says, “Russian peacekeepers are few and physically unable to hold back several thousand Azerbaijani special forces. In addition, peacekeepers have long understood that all issues are resolved between Baku and Moscow behind closed doors. As for the West, it does not have the physical ability to hinder or restrain Azerbaijan. The biggest problem for Baku will be international criticism and possibly some sanctions.”
