Radar Armenia‘s interlocutor is Shahan Gantaharyan, an international scholar.
– The American side once again announces that there is progress in the negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but much work still needs to be done. Progress was announced last time as well. Why does this progress happen when they are shooting parallel to the negotiations in Artsakh?
– Yes, you rightly mentioned that they shoot while negotiating, and this is the official military-political behavior of Azerbaijan. The problem is that there is no accusation against the shooter. The reason for that is also apparent. In a mediation conflict, each inviting party does not want to violate neutrality to maintain mediator status. Azerbaijan takes excellent advantage of this and shoots. Washington does not report the main news. There is progress, but other vital points still need to be worked on for a long time. At the same time, it is noted that a new meeting is expected in the EU in the coming weeks, which emphasizes the US-EU coordination in this matter.
– Zakharova said they hope Yerevan will stay in the tripartite format. Do you think this is a warning or a concern?
– Both motives are present in this statement. The violator of the tripartite agreement is, in fact, Azerbaijan. This means that Baku practically left the tripartite agreements. Moreover, by violating the tripartite agreements, Baku provides a card for the USA and the EU to declare that the agreements reached under the guarantee of the Russian Federation are not respected and, in general, Russian peacekeeping does not work. The facts of this are the blockade of Artsakh, the establishment of a checkpoint in Lachin, the non-handover of prisoners of war, and the violation of a permanent cease-fire. Moscow’s primary mission is to maintain the mediation and extend the term of the peacekeeping forces, so the message is also addressed to Baku. It was interesting that Zakharova also announced that the UN could contribute to the conclusion of a peace agreement. This is new and related to the involvement of the UN institutions proposed by the PACE resolution.
– How likely is the signing of a peace agreement before the end of the year if we consider the aggressive rhetoric of Baku and the steps expected from Armenia?
– The time is still being determined. Geopolitical interest is not the bottom line of the issue. To fully use the conflict in the struggle for spheres of influence, this is the main motive of the ongoing processes in the region. The statement of the US Secretary of State that there is a lot of work to be done to reach a peace agreement is proof of that.
– Pashinyan had a telephone conversation with Erdogan. How appropriate was that call, and what did Armenia get from it?
– Armenia will not get anything from such telephone conversations. Going in person also didn’t register any results. The Yerevan-Ankara dialogue process is strongly interconnected with the Yerevan-Baku negotiations. It was announced months ago that there is an agreement to open the land border for third-country nationals/diplomats or to repair the historic bridge of Ani. Agreements are currently declarative.
