Radar Armenia‘s interlocutor is political scientist Davit Stepanyan.
– The Secretary of the Security Council announced the other day that if the Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiations continue with this intensity, the peace agreement will likely be signed before the end of the year. Do you see such an opportunity?
– I see a possibility that the Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiations can end with a peace treaty. Why is the Secretary of the Security Council stressing about the end of the year because? According to my information, the United States, first of all, the State Department, is committed to signing the treaty by the end of this year and is very determined. It has been discussed many times. Various representatives of the State Department have said and alluded to it. There is also an internal political reason here. The Biden administration wants to reach a peace agreement and show that they can do what no other mediator, including previous US administrations, has yet to do. I have always had a certain optimism in this matter. It is possible to achieve peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia. What price we have to pay for that peace is another question.
– Next week, the regular negotiations between the Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan were supposed to start in Washington. It was announced that the meeting was postponed at the request of the Azerbaijani side. Could you please explain this situation to me?
– There are issues on the agenda that still need to be agreed upon.
– And what are your expectations? In the event of a meeting, will the parties reach the point where Stepanakert and Baku will start direct negotiations?
– The parties will not achieve severe results in Washington at this same stage of the negotiations. It should be understood that technical issues are being discussed, which are the most important at this stage. As we know, the devil is in the details. The parties will not reach a consensus regarding the Stepanakert and Baku negotiations shortly. Azerbaijan sees it as follows: the talks should proceed at the domestic political level. Azerbaijan considers Artsakh part of its territory. In Artsakh, even today, they have a slightly different attitude. I am not talking about Armenia. The parties can only reach a consensus briefly, but it is included. I believe they will focus more on the remaining two “cases.” It is the distinction between Armenia and Azerbaijan and the re-opening of communications.
– In this context, it is noteworthy that the representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Zakharova announced that the US and EU peace resolutions would not lead to any positive results. Doesn’t the competition between the West and the Russian Federation reduce the possibility of a peace agenda?
– I think that Mrs. Zakharova “accepts what is true” because today, Russia’s opportunities to influence the outcome of the negotiations are not so great. Although, I cannot exclude in any way that there may come a moment when Aliyev, realizing that the pressure has increased regarding the same Stepanakert-Baku dialogue, may bend over again and fall into Putin’s arms. This is also possibly a tool that Aliyev actively uses in the West during negotiations. There is a danger that he may turn to Russia again. So that the competition does not decrease but increases the probability, in that if it were not for that competition, and everything was under the moderation of Russian control, we could not expect any contract at all. It would be what was written on the unfortunate paper dated November 9. And this does not contain any positive expectations for us. But I want to emphasize again that Aliyev will play an active role in the West-Russia competition and will try to reap the highest dividends for Azerbaijan thanks to it. There is some optimism in this matter, but it is impossible to claim that the peace agreement will be signed by the end of the year because there are many obstacles, and the geopolitical situation may change again. A lot depends on the events taking place in Ukraine, among others.
