The “International Crisis Group” published a new article predicting the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, the new EU observation mission, the blockade of the Lachin Corridor, and a possible new Armenian-Azerbaijani war.
In the article, among the historical references, it is concluded: “While there have been several border skirmishes between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the September fighting increased the risk of hostilities along the border and inside Armenia. If this leads to another war in the South Caucasus, both countries will face human, financial, and political losses, and regional stability will also suffer. Even if there is no all-out war, new fighting will bring nothing but tragedy to the residents and further worsen the political climate in Eurasia, which is already bad enough due to Russia’s actions in Ukraine. But with negotiations shaky and diplomacy complicated by the deepening crisis between Russia and the West, the sides’ neighbors must invest extra effort and energy to manage the risk of renewed hostilities.”
The international crisis group also referred to the new EU observation mission and the overlapping interests of Russia and the EU, “The EU should establish working arrangements with Russian border guards, where EU observers and Russian personnel work closely together. Moscow may not welcome the mission with open arms, but its interests in the South Caucasus coincide with those of Brussels, at least in conflict prevention. The Kremlin should see the mission as an opportunity and quietly help it do its job.”
