Hungary knew its decision to hand convicted killer Ramil Safarov over to his native Azerbaijan would spark a diplomatic backlash from Armenia, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said on Tuesday, Reuters writes.
“There was coordination within the entire government about this,” Orban said. “Each ministry presented its opinion, the justice ministry about the legal side and the foreign ministry about the diplomatic consequences.”
“Nothing happened after our decision that we would not have reckoned with in advance,” he added.
Hungary has said its actions were consistent with international law and that Azerbaijan had promised to uphold Safarov’s sentence.
Yet despite these calculations, the Hungarian Foreign Minister Hungary warned Armenia on Monday to restore diplomatic relations or face “serious ramifications.”
In a letter to his Armenian counterpart Edward Nalbandian revealed by Hungarian media on Monday, Hungarian Foreign Minister Janos Martonyi again defended his government’s decision to extradite Ramil Safarov to Azerbaijan more than eight years after the brutal murder of Lieutenant Gurgen Markarian in Budapest. He said the extradition stemmed from a European convention and was not aimed at offending the Armenian people.
Armenian leaders have brushed aside such statements, saying that Budapest was well aware that Safarov will be set free if sent back home. They also say that Hungarian officials had repeatedly assured Yerevan, including in the days leading up to the extradition, that the Azerbaijani army officer will not be repatriated.
“The Armenian people will not forgive that,” President Serzh Sarkisian said as he suspended diplomatic relations with Hungary on August 31 just hours after Safarov returned to Baku to a hero’s welcome.
Fear of War
The Safarov release and subsequent pardon have thrown a monkey wrench in the already contentious peace talks. Some fear that this could escalate tensions to a point of war.
Diplomats and analysts say that if another war breaks out, it is likely to end in stalemate, according to Reuters.
“The Azeris can’t retake Karabakh now. They are militarily incapable of doing it. I don’t think they could dislodge the Armenian forces from the high ground. I think that’s extremely difficult.”
Yusif Agayev, an Azeri military expert and veteran of the war, said there was no mood for a protracted fight.
“I think it would be a month or two, that is the amount of time our armed forces could fight for. If it drags on longer then it will become a war that society will have to participate in, not just the army,” he said. “I don’t think the society of my country is ready for war.”
