US Vice President James David Vance will visit Armenia on February 9. Radar Armenia discussed with political scientist Styopa Safaryan what results Vance’s visit could bring and what impact it could have for Armenia.
– What are the expectations from US Vice President Vance’s visit?
– As the US President stated in his note, the US Vice President’s visit to Azerbaijan and Armenia aims to advance regional communication routes, their implementation, and institutionalization. Within this framework, another cornerstone will be laid for this route and related practical steps.
– Can Vance’s visit be considered a new stage of US involvement in the South Caucasus?
– In this context, Vance’s visit can be considered a new stage of US involvement in the South Caucasus. The first and most visible evidence of this was the trilateral and bilateral statements and memoranda signed with Armenia on August 8, as well as one document with Azerbaijan.
Three memoranda were also signed with Armenia: the first concerns the energy sector and the “Crossroads of Peace” initiative; the second concerns infrastructure development; and the third concerns communications and artificial intelligence. These memoranda demonstrate the depth of the process, which involves a comprehensive modernization of Armenia’s energy system.
-What are the expectations from the signed memoranda?
-From the perspective of the investment component, it is obvious that the United States and Armenia are starting a mutually beneficial business partnership in high-risk but large-scale projects. In this context, the construction of a new nuclear power plant in Armenia is also not ruled out, about which statements have already been made.
With the development of high technologies and high-tech industry, Armenia can become part of the global supply chain, supplying the world with microchips. This process also includes laying data and internet cables across Armenia, which can be viewed as a “digital peace crossroads” or a digital communication channel.
– How do you assess the fact that both Armenia and Azerbaijan are trying to deepen relations with the United States?
– Armenia already has tangible results in this process.
Regardless of the complexities of Armenia-Azerbaijan and US-Azerbaijan relations, it is clear that both countries are seeking to deepen their ties with the United States through a strategic partnership.
In essence, Armenia is becoming a key link in the interconnection of global markets, and the states trading in these markets cannot remain indifferent to the issues of security and peace in the South Caucasus, in particular, in Armenia. Endangering Armenia’s security would also mean endangering the communication channels that connect these markets.
– What risks does this process entail for Armenia?
-There is no responsible actor in the world who is ready to jeopardize the multi-billion-dollar investments that the United States plans to make in Armenia. Second, no one is interested in disrupting supply chains in which the interests of several important states and global players are intertwined. All this, although not wholly, significantly reduces the risks of military aggression against Armenia, at least in the medium term.
As for Azerbaijan, Baku was trying to exclude Armenia from global supply chains. However, this was not achieved. With the intervention of US representatives, it was clearly stated that the communication route should pass through Armenia. Azerbaijan preferred to implement the route in the direction of Turkey-Georgia-Azerbaijan, bypassing Armenia, but this option was not accepted. Now, Azerbaijan is forced to come to terms with the fact that, according to the United States, the road should pass through the Republic of Armenia.
