The Burke Chair in Strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies has recently updated a two-part analysis on Iran’s growing military capabilities, Part I: The Conventional and Asymmetric Dimensions and Part II: The Missile and Nuclear Dimensions.
The two-part report draws on the most recent information available, including updated sources and analyses, and provides new insights on Iran’s conventional and unconventional forces. It responds to growing tension in the region with current data on what a military confrontation would entail from Iran’s standpoint. It incorporates the major strategic components of each side, illuminates Western concerns over developments in Iran’s nuclear program and details its growing emphasis on economic and asymmetric warfare.
Part I: The Conventional and Asymmetric Dimensions, available at http://csis.org/files/publication/120221_Iran_Gulf_MilBal_ConvAsym.pdf, focuses on Iran’s ground, sea, air, and air defense forces, with a renewed emphasis on the ability of the Revolutionary Guard to undertake offensive action against the sea lanes in the Strait of Hormuz. Major updates include a far more comprehensive view of Iran’s air-defense network, including Iran’s deteriorating long-range SAM coverage and Iranian efforts to rebuild and reinforce that coverage with imported and domestically-improved foreign systems.
Part II: The Missile and Nuclear Dimensions, available at http://csis.org/files/publication/120222_Iran_Gulf_Mil_Bal_II_WMD.pdf, addresses the unconventional aspects of Iran’s military including its research into advanced ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons. The updated ballistic section includes technical specifications on the major classes of Iranian liquid- and solid-fueled missiles, and analyses their potential role within a conventional campaign and as carriers for CBRN weapons.
Part II assesses Iran as having a capable force for short-range massed bombardment, but lacking the precision, munitions, and range to yet threaten forces more than a few hundred kilometers from its shores.
