Radar Armenia‘s interlocutor is political scientist Armen Vardanyan.
– The EU has decided to send a two-year civilian mission to the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. What will the presence of the mission give?
– This decision is primarily a deterrent factor for Azerbaijan because, in the last two years, Azerbaijan has invaded the sovereign territory of Armenia several times, provoked clashes, and bombarded the country’s border regions. And sending this mission now will drastically reduce those dangers. I think Azerbaijan will think several times before resorting to provocations. This angered Baku precisely because Azerbaijan was also deprived of a vital weapon or trump card. By inciting clashes on the borders, Azerbaijan tried to extort from Armenia an accelerated peace treaty signing on its terms. And today, it is deprived of that playing card.
– The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan expressed opposition to the decision to deploy the EU civilian mission for two years, noting that it coincides with Armenia’s attempts to disrupt the settlement process. Why does the deployment of the EU mission worry Azerbaijan? Is it an attempt to disrupt the process?
-Azerbaijan was trying to get the peace treaty to be signed, for Armenia to give up Artsakh once and for all, and for the issue of Artsakh to be sent to the dustbin of history. And in the background of all this was their whole tactics. Their expectations still need to be met, which shows why Baku’s statement is irritating.
-Azerbaijan also noted that the initial expectations that the EU mission would contribute to promoting the settlement agenda needed to be justified. What does this mean? That the Brussels platform does not like the moderation of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations?
– Of course, there will be more negotiations. It cannot be said that the negotiation process was closed in general. They may continue in other capitals. But I repeat: Azerbaijan was deprived of an essential weapon. It also cannot force Armenia to sign a peace treaty. I think the decision to send the EU mission closed the issue of taking the “Zangezur Corridor” by force. Azerbaijan was also deprived of this. They will understand that they cannot get an extraterritorial corridor from Armenia by force.
– What will be the consequences of US Secretary of State Blinken’s phone conversation with Azerbaijan’s President Aliyev in resolving the situation in Lachin Corridor?
– The same context can also be observed due to Blinken’s phone call. The American side also exerts intense pressure on Azerbaijan to open the corridor, and it turns out that Azerbaijan is deprived of another pressure tool. By closing the Lachin Corridor, they are also trying to force Armenia to open the “Zangezur Corridor.” In the coming days, giving way to the pressure, they will open the corridor. I don’t know in what way, but Azerbaijan will have to open it. If they don’t open it, it will have dire consequences for them.
Hayk Magoyan
