Aram Amatuni in his political analysis refers to the PAP behavior and the news in the mass media that he will not put his candidacy. The press secretary of Tsarukyan Iveta Tonoyan seems to prepare a ground for Tsarukyan not to be a candidate by her interviews. For example, she said Tsarukyan never talked about putting his candidacy so there will not be any reason to regret. Amatuni states that this game of silence could be absolutely uninteresting if not for the fate of the state. And what is actually interesting is the cost of Tsarukyan’s candidacy. This means what his benefit will be in case he withdraws from the candidacy and indirectly supports Sargsyan?
Amatuni believes that Tsarukyan’s withdrawal will mean supporting Serzh Sargsyan and there is no conspiracy in this political game. If Tsarukyan did not participate in the elections, he would by all means support any of the candidates. It turns out his refusal supports Sargsyan first and foremost of all.
The political analyst states the cost Tsarukyan will pay may be devastating for the state, there is however another option: Tsarukyan will get nothing but guarantees for the support of his business safety.
Amatuni discusses the significance of the promises the PAP will get from the government and states they are hardly going to be central. Perhaps a most probable scenario will be the PM’s post to the PAP. In case Tsarukyan does not put his candidacy, he will lose the people’s trust and this will give more space to Sargsyan to deal with the PAP more freely.
Amatuni concludes that no matter what the price of Tsarukyan’s refusal is, Sargsyan will not play soft diplomacy with the PAP reminding the ANC discussions example where Serzh Sargsyan made it clear he was not going to go for compromises. The PAP once made a memorandum and refused of it. This actually did not change a lot, but it made Sargsyan get on his nerves. This time Sargsyan will show that it is not good to play games that are not meant for his policy. Finally Tsarukyan will lose a large amount of his electorate’s trust, instead he will gain a completely different meaning for Sargsyan.
