Radar Armenia‘s interlocutor is Shahan Gantaharyan, an international scholar.
– Israel struck Iran in response to the April 13 attack. What developments should we expect? Will Iran retaliate against Israel?
– It is clear that Israel was going to respond, even though the USA warned not to retaliate. The long-range, air-neutralized ATS strategy works in two directions. Proxism has been transformed into direct areas. Iran violated the rules of the game, and Israel responded proportionately.
– Will the conflict between Israel and Iran escalate into a full-scale war, and in such a scenario, what dangers could there be for the South Caucasus, particularly for Armenia?
– There will not be a large-scale war in the region. Multi-target, multi-point, local, and hybrid formats will continue to thrive without becoming large-scale. This is the spread of the military models of the Third World War in different regions. Azerbaijan’s geographical position in the South Caucasus will be valued, but the use of Azerbaijani bases for Israel depends on Ankara, and Ankara will negotiate with the USA. As of now, Ankara’s dependence on Washington has strengthened.
– In your opinion, is the Israeli strike coordinated with the United States, and is the United States in favor of a new war?
– The USA continues to play the role of referee in this matter. Interestingly, the head of the US intelligence department turned to his Turkish counterpart to mediate in the Israel-Iran conflict. The result is that Israel is being forced to wage war on many fronts: in South Lebanon, Gaza, the Red Sea, and now directly in Iran. And this multilateralization is controlled by the USA.
– The Russian peacekeeping troops left Nagorno-Karabakh ahead of schedule. To what extent is this process related to the Israel-Iran conflict?
– Russia’s withdrawal from Artsakh still left unanswered questions. It is premature to announce that Russia is leaving the South Caucasus altogether. It is more related to the war in Ukraine. The complete depopulation of Artsakh rendered the presence of Russian peacekeepers meaningless in Artsakh. Still, Moscow continued to declare that it would remain in Artsakh, a decision for Moscow and Baku. Now, things are moving fast. The processes of the presence or removal of the Russian Federation in the South Caucasus are interrelated with the military events recorded in Ukraine.
