Radar Armenia summarized 2023 with Turkologist Nelly Minasyan.
– Turkey is one of the major players in the region. If you summarize the year 2023, what impact did the processes in Turkey have on the foreign policy of neighboring states, particularly Armenia?
– Indeed, Turkey has become a significant player. Of course, he has yet to receive all the levers so far, but he is trying to be involved in the events in the South Caucasus as much as possible. If we summarize the processes in 2023, Turkey has not quite achieved all the goals set before it in foreign policy. This is not only related to the Caucasus region. Turkey, from the point of view of forming the main influence levers and systems, has a few outstanding achievements. On the contrary, other states, especially the big ones (Russia and the USA), are trying to develop mechanisms to restrain Turkey. I will mention here the relations with Greece when Erdoğan attempted to adjust the ties at this time, by and large, considering this in the context that Greece is a member of the EU. From the point of view of Armenia’s foreign policy, Turkey mainly uses the Azerbaijani factor and continues the policy of pressure on Armenia.
– What kind of year was 2023 from the point of view of the settlement of Armenian-Turkish relations?
– If I describe briefly, talking about achievements is impossible. Certain agreements were indeed made, but the fact that Turkey still needs to implement them to this day proves that there is no current result. Moreover, Turkey’s policy of pressure on Armenia has become apparent. These processes will continue in 2024 as well.
– Although it was announced that the settlement of Armenian-Turkish relations should occur without preconditions, Turkey’s precondition is the settlement of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations. How realistically will it be possible to go this way in 2024?
– Indeed, when the process started, it was said that the settlement of Armenian-Turkish relations was without preconditions. But at some stage, a precondition appeared. The other preconditions will emerge at some stages. Today, the primary precondition is the regulation of Armenia-Azerbaijan relations and the signing of a peace treaty. At the same time, Turkey puts forward preconditions on behalf of Azerbaijan or through the lips of Azerbaijan. Here, we should mention the main one, the “Zangezur Corridor” problem. Turkey is trying to solve the issues through Azerbaijan, although recently when the influence or pressure on Azerbaijan is noticeable, Turkish officials talk about it personally. It seems like a puzzle when the regulation of Armenian-Turkish relations is conditioned by the regulation of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations. Still, they pose such a problem here, which is essential for Turkey’s regional policy. It is a cycle where we are still waiting for significant results. How realistic will 2024 be? It is difficult to make predictions because, in the conditions of active geopolitical developments, it is difficult even to make some predictions related to the near future. But, in any case, in 2024, it is necessary to wait for activation, and depending on the relations of the major centers with each other, the limits of Turkey’s possibilities will be determined when it tries to use what is in its hands to increase its influence in the region. At the moment, there are no prerequisites to believe that there will be a settlement of relations.
– To what extent is Turkey in favor of peace in the region, and is the “Crossroads of Peace” project of interest to Turkey?
– Starting from 2020, Turkey is playing a destabilizing role in the region, which continues. Turkey imagines peace in the area at the price of its conditions or after confirming its conditions, which is the other problematic aspect. Naturally, Turkey wants to satisfy its interests without considering the interests of other states, in this case, Armenia. Since the primary beneficiary of the “Zangezur Corridor” is Turkey, for which it is a strategic project, it is not interested in the “Crossroads of Peace” project. It will not show such interest shortly. Here, too, it is necessary to consider in what direction the future geopolitical developments will take place. There may be a different approach if there are unfavorable developments for Turkey. For example, Turkey might start a positive conversation if Moscow and the West activate their policies towards our region. In general, this project will not be of interest to Turkey.
