In his political analysis, Aram Amatuni dwells with the failing of the ANC initiative Serzh Sargsyan tries to show his strategic advantage and that he has no intention to yield to the ARF-PAP-ANC-“Heritage” grouping.
Sargsyan does this to send a message both to the opposition fractions, to the society and to outside political powers to show he feels quite confident in what he does. This overestimation of his confidence may be elusive for the strategy Sargsyan leads outer is quite open and predictable for the external parties. Today Armenia is in a strategically significant geopolitical state and the reforms to foster and develop the country are an inevitable imperative of the time. Hence, as Amatuni believes, the predictable stance Sargsyan has adopted may turn for his bad and the president can be blamed for not managing to accomplish the reforms he should do. What concerns the message to the opposition and the public Sargsyan knows very well that the opposition will not take extreme measures because there is a huge gap of ideology and mutually arrived at agreements which will not let them overpower him.
The joint opposition may come to the point when the taking of radical steps will be justified when it does lose all hope concerning the incumbent government. The matter is about the post electoral situation, when the opposition may take desperate measures and threats to change the situation. This will be an optimal chance for Sargsyan to maneuver on the international arena. To imitate a post-electoral tension Sargsyan will turn to an experienced political trick. Amatuny states if the imitation grows into a serious and real threat, Sargsyan will most probably bribe the central powers the considerable part of which has shown how high it appreciates the business relations in politics. The political analyst concludes arguing that business interests first of all imply stability and as a consequence the PAP may turn out to be a more reliable guarantor of this stability rather than the RP itself.
