The International Crisis Group has presented the ten military conflicts in the world in 2023, which should be paid attention to, considering the possibility of new outbreaks. The Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict came in second place. It is mentioned in the analysis that two years after the war in Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia and Azerbaijan are heading for a possible new confrontation. It is noted that Russia’s problems in Ukraine disrupted the preliminary calculations in the Caucasus. According to the report, the new war will be shorter but no less dramatic than the 44-day war.
According to the International Crisis Group, since the 44-day war, the balance in the region and the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict has shifted even more in favor of Azerbaijan. “The Armenian army has not replenished its troops or weapons because Russia, the traditional supplier of weapons, is short of supplies. Azerbaijan, on the contrary, has gathered momentum. The Azerbaijani army is several times superior to the Armenian one, is much better equipped technically, and enjoys the support of Turkey. Europe’s great demand for Azerbaijani gas has also given courage to Baku.”
“Within the 2020 ceasefire agreement framework, Russian peacekeepers have been deployed in those regions of Nagorno Karabakh that Armenians still inhabit. Russia has strengthened its border guards and soldiers along those parts of the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, which became new front lines after the war. The idea was that the troops, although small, would deter attacks, as Baku would be wary of “biting” Moscow, the publication said.
The International Crisis Group summarizes. “…As a result, two draft agreements are in circulation. Russia prepared one, and Armenia and Azerbaijan developed the other with the mutual support of the West. Each project refers to the economy and the stabilization of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations. Moreover, the fate of Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh remains at the discretion of a separate and still undecided process. The Western-backed option is likely more promising, in part because it is “tailor-made,” although it is unclear how Moscow would react if the parties reach an agreement. Both sides, however, are far from a common denominator. Baku has all the cards in its hands and will benefit more from the deal, especially from the point of view of trade and foreign relations, than from the military.
The danger is that the negotiations will not lead to anything, or another clash will defeat those options, and Azerbaijan will take what it can by force,” the group concluded.
