Aram Amatuni in his political analysis discusses Hrant Bagratyan’s approach to the PAP-ANC cooperation. Bagratyan stated that there is no need to treat the ANC-PAP cooperation very seriously as in the end it might turn out there was nothing substantial.
Amatuni states this cooperation which claimed to be the alliance of the century did not actually foster public demonstrations on the PAP and ANC unification. People did not believe in the fundamental change assurances these parties were promising. Hrant Bagratyan’s approach might hint to this “bluff” as a matter of fact which means these two political parties were only “bluffing” for Serzh Sargsyan who would be afraid of the opposition force and invite them separately for a discussion. In other words, the PAP and ANC wanted to sell their cooperation as expensive as would be possible but they did not calculate that this alliance even in case it was carried out it had no ample ground for further real development. Amatuni believes this is the “bluff” these two political parties play now.
On the other side there is the “Moscow facto”r in this issue, as Amatuni states, and clarifies that Russia does not want Sargsyan to look for Western assistance in any aspect which, as a matter of fact, can allure Sargsyan by its subtle tactics. This is absolutely not within the Moscow calculations and it is the reason the PAP-ANC tandem is mutually suitable: on the one hand Sargsyan will be on the Russian’s guard, on the other hand this political instable tandem thinks of not being left with nothing.
Amatuni states that the West, contrary to Sargsyan applies the sticks and carrots policy and can turn out to be more effective in times of crisis that Moscow. Hence the PAP in the opposition ground supplies a struggle of the same species, in which case the advantage is on the Western side. This is what Russia understands too that’s why it will not pass the game of “bluffing” to a serious ground of cardinal changes.
Amatuni concludes that from this point of view there really may not be any serious political deliberation behinf the ANC-PAP tandem and it would be better for those who build their future on the PAP-ANC tandem see that there is nothing more but a show.
