Hovhan Mandakuni in his political analysis discusses the PAP leader’s probable candidacy. He states the essence of Tsarukayn’s decision has nothing to do with the candidacy but is a formal outside cover. What is has to do with is Kocharyan and Sargsyan strategies. He has to decide whether he sticks to any of these political figures. Tsarukyan understands that any other decision but that will harm his political reputation because he will be backed only in case Russia or the US are interested in his candidacy. Mandakuni believes choosing a second option Tsarukyan will distort the political atmosphere. The analyst explains Tsarukyan can get rid of Kocharyan only by supporting Sargsyan and the other way round: by supporting Kocharyan he will get rid of Sargsyan. Levon Ter-Petrosyan in this case is a temporary tool to maneuver as Mandakuni states and in case Tsarukyan chooses to support Ter-Petrosyan, he will have to simultaneously serve either Kocharyan or Sargsyan because the ANC as a separate political power has no resources for self-governing.
The political analyst believes the best option would be Moscow to decide upon the issue but Putin’s boycott of not arriving to Armenia has left the situation neglected. This is a message not to divert the already existing political course from its center. Putin’s step is the one against both Kocharyan and Tsarukyan.
As Mandakuni concludes, there was no direct instruction from Moscow which means there has been given a temporary freedom for the intrastate political solutions which has never been used probable because no one including Tsarukyan knew how to do that. They are accustomed to outside instructions and when there is no any, they have no idea how to function.
