Radar Armenia‘s interlocutor is Shahan Gantaharyan, an international scholar.
The US has contacted several partners, including Europe, China, and Turkey, to urge Tehran to refrain from escalating relations with Israel. The spokesperson of the State Department stated that the conflict between Israel and Iran will affect not only the countries of the region but also the entire region. Will the US succeed in “convincing” the parties to refrain from escalation?
– Let’s try to consider the problem from a global point of view. Washington and Tehran dictate the game’s rules in the Middle East region. These are the two leading players that form the most influential sub-soils. And if a large-scale war does not break out in the area, one should think that the two players are acting as a deterrent; there will be proxy w, ars, hybrid wars, and localized skirmishes, but I don’t think there will be a significant war due to the circumstances I mentioned.
– In this context, let us recall that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, visiting the F-15 fighter airbase, clearly hinted at Iran, declaring that Israel would strike in case of any attack. How will the Iranian side present itself, considering US-Iran relations?
– Washington-Tel Aviv relations are not what they used to be. It became clear to the various perpetrators of the Gaza war that Israel did not enjoy the previous absolute protection in political and diplomatic terms. The demands and statements made by the representative of Tel Aviv at the UN, especially in the form of the demand for the resignation of the UN Secretary-General, remained unanswered. The comparisons of the voting on the cease-fire project related to Gaza are telling in that sense. Israel, which has a monopoly on the Holocaust, is being judged today as a state that committed genocidal acts. In parallel, Washington-Tehran tense relations have been transformed, and I think it is felt both in the Middle East and South Caucasus.
– Putin also announced that it is impossible to defeat Russia. According to him, the opponent has reached a dead end by refusing negotiations and hoping to win on the battlefield. In your opinion, how will the Russian-Ukrainian conflict develop after the elections in the United States?
– The long duration of the war in Ukraine gives rise to consequences. Moscow does not manage to complete its tasks, and Ukraine has turned into a platform for the collective West to attack Russia. There will not be a breakthrough change in Russian-American relations after the elections. The appearance of the NATO forces involved in the war in Ukraine in the countries bordering Russia speaks of the violation of world order agreements. The new world order has not yet been formed, and the processes in that direction will continue.
– What impact and consequences can these ongoing processes have on the South Caucasus, particularly Armenia?
– Armenia has also appeared on the platforms of the process of forming a new world order. Syunik is a vivid proof of this, where Iran, Moscow, and the collective West are active in the form of France and the USA. After a while, there will be actions based on the philosophy of counterbalancing, which leads to the status quo. The geopolitical competition will continue in the region and in the direction of Armenia.
