Ani Avetisyan – a graduate student at the Elliott School of International Affairs, touched upon the probable scenario of Georgia’s new government approach to the country’s foreign policy in International Affairs Review. Find full article below.
Although some are worried that President Mikhail Saakashvili’s defeat spells changes for U.S-Georgian relations, evidence suggests that the new government will not stray far from the foreign policies of its predecessor.
On October 1, the election campaign of current Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili and his United National Movement coalition was unexpectedly defeated by Georgian billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili and his Georgian Dream coalition in parliamentary elections. Until the final days of the election, the media was confident of Saakashvili’s victory. Saakashvili, who has another year left in his second term as President, will now be forced to cooperate with the newly elected government until the sixth presidential election in 2013.
After preliminary poll results, Saakashvili appeared on television, gracefully conceding power to the victorious party. He stated that he remains firmly against the Georgian Dream coalition and its leadership, but will respect democratic rule in Georgia. This concession is a new and remarkable phenomenon in a post-Soviet country where leaders have been criticized for their alleged authoritarian tendencies.
This shift in power may have long run effects on U.S-Georgian relations. According to many supporters of the United National Movement, the close ties cultivated by the pro-Western Georgian leader are at risk. Throughout the years, Saakashvili has been one of the few pro-American democratic leaders in the volatile South Caucasus region to resist Russian influence. His far-reaching ambition has been to move Georgia out of Russia’s orbit, allowing the country to join the Western powers through membership to NATO and the European Union.
Saakashvili’s supporters view Bidzina Ivanishvili’s coming to power as a major setback. The Georgian government has accused Ivanishvili, who has made his $6.4 billion fortune in Russia through banking, pharmacy, and real estate, of being a Russian agent. The value of his net worth is half Georgia’s entire GDP. Additionally, Moscow has shown an interest in the recent elections as they offer an opportunity for change in its relations.
Georgia is an important United States ally for political, security, and economic reasons. First, democracy is a core strategic interest for the United States. Saakashvili, a 44 year-old Columbia Law graduate, came to power during the peaceful Rose Revolution. Before he took office in 2003, Georgia was on the verge of becoming a failed state. The progressive political and economic reforms spearheaded by Saakashvili modernized the economy, reduced corruption and attracted billions in foreign investment. His reforms to stabilize the country have raised his credibility — his approval rating in 2010 neared 70 percent.
Second, Georgia’s location on the Black Sea and in the South Caucasus region makes it a key actor in preserving the security and stability of the region. This is consistent with U.S interests in Euro-Atlantic security, transportation, and energy. If Russia shuts off access to Central Asia and the Caspian Sea from the West, it would force Europe to become almost entirely dependent on Russia for gas and energy.
Despite the widely held belief by Saakashvili’s supporters that the two opposing leaders have envisioned different paths for the future of Georgia, Ivanishvili seems to be eager to cooperate with the same Western governments as Saakashvili. On various occasions Ivanishvili stated that he will continue the foreign policy platform established by the Saakashvili administration. With that said, he aims at Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic cooperation and its membership in NATO. Additionally, the incoming Georgian Prime Minister has reassured multiple times of his intention to only serve in politics for 18 months.
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton must aim at strengthening the political ties with the newly elected government in Georgia. This will not be a divergence from Saakashvili’s pro-American state, but a benefit to the United States. The U.S must continue its efforts to help Georgia solidify its democratic rule and institutions. By doing so, the United States will be able to maintain a strong ally in the critical, but politically and economically turbulent, South Caucus region.
