Molly Corso in the article pubslished on Eurasiante.org writes that after a solid victory over President Mikheil Saakshvili’s United National Movement in Georgia’s October 1 parliamentary elections, billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili and his nine-party coalition may feel like they are living the Georgian Dream.
But keeping the coalition together and governing effectively may prove a challenge.
As reported, with 98.81 percent of the votes counted, the Georgian Dream has 54.94 percent of the proportional vote, compared with 40.33 percent for the UNM. The coalition also has a narrow lead among the 73 first-past-the-post races as well – 38 seats compared with 35 for the UNM.
The source recalls that under the constitution, President Saakashvili can take the lead in forming a cabinet, but his selections must be confirmed by parliament.,however, Saakashvili has already indicated he will stand out of the Georgian Dream’s way.
In a bid to avoid “a political crisis,” UNM spokesperson Chiora Taktakishvili said, the president will allow the Georgian Dream to take the initiative in cobbling together a cabinet for parliamentary approval.
The coalition has already formed a three-person group – comprising Irakli Alasania of Our Georgia-Free Democracy, Davit Usupashvili of the Republican Party and Irakli Gharabashvili of the Georgian Dream Party – to lead discussions on a proposed new cabinet.
But while, at first glance, the coalition might seem firmly on the road to governing, some observers believe the process of forming a cabinet could turn into a make-or-break moment for the Georgian Dream. Saakashvili, then, may be aiming to give the Georgian Dream coalition the rope with which it could hang itself.
The internal process of haggling over which party receives what ministerial post could be a “stimulus” toward the coalition’s collapse, commented political scientist Malkhaz Matsaberidze.
“These people are different in political views, some cardinally different,” Matsaberidze said. “Among them they don’t just have difference in ideas; some of them do not even like each other.”
“The first step of the party will be an effort to form a constitutional majority,” predicted Matsaberidze. “I believe they will try to bring over majoritarian candidates from the United National Movement.”
The parliamentary campaign marked Ivanishvili’s own political debut, and, in the days since the election, he has made some significant missteps. For example, Ivanishvili’s October 2 call for Saakashvili’s resignation and indications that the coalition was considering criminal prosecution against unnamed senior UNM members can only alienate UNM members, and thus make the task of implementing the Georgian Dream’s legislative agenda more difficult.
Molly Corso is a freelance journalist who also works as editor of Investor.ge, a monthly publication by the American Chamber of Commerce in Georgia.
