Radar Armenia‘s interlocutor is Shahan Gantaharyan, an international scholar.
– The Mirzoyan-Bayramov meetings ended in Berlin with the mediation of the German Foreign Minister. Considering also the Pashinyan-Aliev-Sholz format meeting during the security conference in Munich, is a new mediator for the settlement of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations emerging in the person of Germany?
– Let’s note that before the 44-day Artsakh conflict, the negotiations were conducted under the auspices of the international family with tripartite mediation. The war returned the mediation of the dispute to the Russian domain in coordination with Ankara. Now, diversification of the guarantees is going on to replace the November tripartite with the EU and the USA, intermediately with other EU member states, with the mediation of the Russian Federation. When discussing the phenomenon of Shultz, one should not forget the principle of the right to self-determination he mentioned months ago.
– Why does the West represent Germany when Washington and the EU did not spare any effort to regulate Armenia-Azerbaijan relations before the fall of Nagorno-Karabakh?
– I think Schultz replaces Macron. The statements and behavior in Paris caused Baku to reject France’s mediation. On the one hand, from an intra-European point of view, there is a Paris-Berlin competition to be in the top positions in the table of influence in the region; on the other hand, from a more global point of view, there is a distribution of roles in the direction of penetration by the collective West. The result of these competitions, or the distribution of roles, is the counterbalancing of the Russian factor in the region.
– There is a lot of talk about the possibility of a new war. Will Aliyev follow the path of war amid the resumption of negotiations?
– The possibility of a resurgence of war is always present, considering the updated policy, rhetoric, territorial demands of the Baku precondition, and unconcealed tendencies to get the most out of the psychology of the victorious side. But there are also restraining factors, such as Iran and the West. I also do not think the Russian Federation will agree to the outbreak of war. There is geopolitical interest in Syunik’s direction. The EU, Iran, and Russia are counterbalancing each other in Syunik under the controlling gaze of Washington. That’s why the control status of the Syunik crossing road of strategic importance has not been determined at this moment. This is the new status quo, the result of stabilization through counterbalancing.
– After the Berlin negotiations, Bayramov and Mirzoyan left for Turkey. What are your expectations from this visit?
– Declaratively, publications about a positive shift, but misinformation. Border liberalization is already off the agenda, and the turning point is the 9th point of the November trilateral, which is an actual issue but far from agreement.
