Radar Armenia‘s interlocutor is Shahan Gantaharyan, an international scholar.
– In Baku, they refused to receive Louis Bono, the senior advisor of the US Secretary of State for Caucasian negotiations. What is the purpose of such behavior of Azerbaijan?
– It is clear that Baku does not want negotiations with the mediation and guarantee of the West. The great agreement is on the Ankara-Moscow ratio and that includes Moscow-Baku. Not holding a meeting in Washington, and now not accepting Bono, fit within the framework of those of the West in the South Caucasus is not in the interests of Azerbaijan. The situation has changed in Georgia and Armenia, and Azerbaijan does not want the situation to change in its country as well. This is due not only to political vectors and strategic allies, but also to the narrow interests of the Aliyev family. In the perspective, internal Azerbaijani ferments are visible, and perhaps, in the longer term, until a possible change of power, which Azerbaijan is trying to avoid.
– Aliyev speaks again from the “Zangezur Corridor”, then announces that they will not leave the territories occupied by Armenia. Is there a possibility to sign a peace agreement under these conditions?
– This is a publication made in a series of inconsistent and contradictory statements of Baku, perhaps also in terms of timing, due to the national elections to be held in Azerbaijan. The domestic audience is targeted, and there is pressure on the Armenian side to accept the Azerbaijani clauses of the peace treaty with concessions.
– The United States and the United Kingdom attacked the Yemeni Houthis, which was criticized by Russia and Iran.
Will the situation become more tense, will we witness more serious clashes?
– A scenario of military clashes was brewing in the Red Sea. The Houthis attacked or hijacked ships using the sea. These coordinated actions between the US and Great Britain give new capacity to regional wars. Gaza and South Lebanon are supplemented by Yemen. Let’s not forget that Riyadh and Tehran have taken a new turn towards normalizing relations with each other, which can act as a deterrent. I think the clashes will remain localized.
– In this context, what developments can be expected, including in terms of the spread of military operations?
– Gaza, South Lebanon, and now Yemen. There will be local hotspots in the region without escalating into a full-scale regional war.
