Radar Armenia‘s interlocutor is Shahan Gantaharyan, an international scholar.
– Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova stated that according to the Trilateral Declaration, the border service of the FSB of the Russian Federation is called to control the communication opening from Azerbaijan to Nakhichevan. The Armenian side denies this claim. How do you interpret these two contradictory statements?
– We are talking about the 9th point of the Noyemberyan tripartite agreement. This point, which has a regional capacity, speaks of the unblocking of the region’s economic and transport connections. It clarifies that the Republic of Armenia guarantees the safety of transport communication between the western regions of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Autonomous Republic of Nakhichevan to organize the unhindered movement of citizens, vehicles, and cargo in both directions. The bodies of the border guard service of the FSB of Russia control transport communication. Zakharova needs to mention the Armenian part. Russian control is under the spotlight. However, the problem is that the November tripartite was canceled. Moscow is trying to revive the 9th clause of the canceled agreement.
– Erdoğan also announced that fulfilling Armenia’s commitments to Azerbaijan will facilitate establishing stable peace in the region. It is essential to implement transport communications shortly. The issue of transport communications is becoming an important one on the agenda. In your opinion, this plan will be implemented in 2024, especially in cases of such contradictions.
– The President of Turkey once again discussed the preconditions of the Turkish-Azerbaijani tandem, addressed to the Armenian side. “Zangezur Corridor” first changes its direction, then becomes an attraction. It is interpreted as bypassing Armenia, then it spreads again in the content of announcements, turns into a Nakhichevan-Azerbaijan corridor, gets lost in the twists and turns of the general lifting of the blockade, and now turns into a precondition for the establishment of peace in Uzbekistan through the President of Turkey, as if the Azerbaijan Transport Line were connecting Nakhichevan in the form of a Middle East-West bridge.
There are messages here for both Iran and Moscow. In the case of the first one, what is said is that the new or reconstructed roads over Iran will not replace the roads to be opened over Syunik. Therefore, Iran will not have the monopoly of controlling that strategic link. And Moscow should also know that it will not be the only one to hold this world-important road. Addressing especially the West as an important direction of this road, Ankara neutralizes Russian privilege.
– In solving this issue, the signing of the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace treaty is essential. There are statements from Baku that the conclusion of peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia is possible if Yerevan stops imitating its participation and resumes constructive work. Do you see a possibility of signing a peace treaty?
– Azerbaijan’s prerequisites are precise. Zangezur Corridor, return of enclaves, distinction based on their preferred maps, and mutual recognition of territorial integrity
– What effect can the Palestinian-Israeli conflict have on the settlement of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations?
– It shouldn’t have an effect in the short term. Azerbaijan is deepening its strategic cooperation with Israel. What can be perceived as hostile by neighboring Iran, whose main security threat is Israel, which has already appeared in Iran’s border regions with Baku’s support. Iran, fixing its red lines, also specifies red lines for the Armenian side in a specific geographical region. With the presence of Israeli bases in the Caucasus, the more Baku moves toward Armenia, it will be perceived as aggression by Iran. The announcements about the change in the geography of the Zangezuryan Corridor speak about it.
– Macron emphasized France’s support for Armenia in overcoming the existing challenges. To what extent does France’s support of Armenia reduce the security risks coming from Azerbaijan?
– The more France supports Armenia, the less likely it will be to reach a peace agreement with the mediation of Paris. There will be counterbalancing actions to mediate and guarantee, on the one hand by Moscow, on the other hand by coordinated Washington and Brussels. In the latter case, France is a factor. Baku’s rejection of Paris implies a delay in the process. And maybe it stems from the interests of the Armenian side.
