Radar Armenia‘s interlocutor is Shahan Gantaharyan, an international scholar.
– During the Palestinian-Israeli military operations, the President of the USA and the Prime Minister of Great Britain visited Israel, expressing their support for Israel. What impact can these visits have on the further development of military operations?
– The main thing is the USA’s visit or position because Britain is a derivative, following Washington. The US is officially providing support, sending warships, and providing military assistance. On the other hand, he declares that the US military presence in the region is more of a deterrent than escalating the war. A specific incompatibility between the interests of Tel Aviv and Washington is noticeable. Its most crucial point is Tehran-West de-escalation or, even, dialogue or, somewhere, agreement. Meanwhile, Tel Aviv and Tehran remain the main threats to each other.
– In what case do you think the Iranian side will intervene in the military operations, and in the case of that scenario, what consequences will we witness in the South Caucasus?
– Iran will not intervene at this moment. Even the Lebanese “Hezbollah” under his influence is not fully involved in the war, which, perhaps, they are dissatisfied with in “Hamas.” The maritime demarcation agreement in Lebanon was, in fact, an Iran-US agreement. It is not excluded that there is a conversation between the US and Iran not to give the war a regional dimension.
– What is the geopolitical significance of the Russian President’s visit to Beijing and Lavrov’s visit to North Korea, and what are the concerns?
– We can observe the situation in forming a new world order axis. Relations between anti-American or other countries outside the influence of the United States are intensifying, but I do not think everyone’s position is unequivocal. The new pole is Beijing, and it is conducting a policy of slow, economic in appearance, political in essence, and then military polarization without getting involved in the wars that have broken out in different geographical environments. Lavrov’s visit to North Korea will take time to impact the South Caucasus, where a clash of geopolitical factors is already underway.
– RA Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that a road map for peace and normalization of relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia was formed in Brussels with the mediation of CE President Charles Michel and noted that the parties’ adherence to this map will ensure a breakthrough in the peace process. What does this mean?
– Let’s not forget Azerbaijan is gradually strengthening its anti-European steps and positions. On the other hand, Europe-Azerbaijan gas relations continue. Baku prefers Russian mediation or a direct, unmediated agreement. Currently, a mediation competition is going on between Yerevan-Europe on the one hand and Baku-Moscow on the other.
– Considering the Russian factor, what developments will the process of signing the peace treaty receive?
– The Russian Deputy Foreign Minister, speaking about the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, hinted that his country is ready to cooperate with Europe and the USA. This is an overview of the restoration of the co-chairmanship of the OSCE Minsk Group. However, it is not feasible under the current conditions. The further course of the Israeli-Palestinian war may have a particular influence on the results of the war in Ukraine, affecting the influence or neutralization of the Russian factor in the South Caucasus.
