Serzh Sargsyan is heading to Moscow for a meeting with Russian president Vladimir Putin on August 8. The notion talks to the fact of Russia persistently increasing its pressure on Armenia. Meeting Putin is the final act of Moscow’s recent-day diplomatic visits. It needs to be stated, that the various-level diplomatic visits during the recent weeks made up the picture of preparing this presidential visit to Moscow.
The meeting is notable also for the fact of the information disseminated six months ago: Putin’s upcoming visit to Armenia in September. Though with no official statement concerning the upcoming visit, it is widely known that the visit will at least be integrated into the framework of CSTO military exercises here.
Armenia is going to hold CSTO mobile armed forces military exercises in September. Interesting is the notion that Moscow tries to reach involvement in CIS countries domestic policies becoming in a way a “police force” using the military exercises as a tool of CSTO. Thus, if Putin visits Armenia in September, question is- what is the meeting in August for; taken into account the fact of Serzh Sargsyan being on a holiday. Thus the meeting talks to the fact that Putin has either something urgent to talk over or the visit in September may not occur, and everything shall depend on the meeting on August 8. If it happens so that Putin pays Armenia a visit, this shall talk to the fact that Serzh Sargsyan managed to please Moscow’s geopolitical ambitions and dispel the fears if any.
However, if Putin does not visit Armenia, this shall talk to the futility of the August meeting. In this context most important is whether Putin visits Armenia prior to presidential elections. Sure is the fact that the meeting will be viewed in the framework of the high level of relations between Armenia and Russia, but as well will point to the notion of Putin having an important say in the reconciliation of relations between the two wings of power in Armenia: Serzh Sargsyan and Robert Kocharyan. Thus no visit shall mean absence of any wish to make public support for Serzh Sargsyan in the election period this being especially urgent for the political elite. While if Serj Sarkissyan does not return to Armenia before September and duringthe pre-election period, interesting shall be the way Robert Kocharyan behaves, since not visiting, Putin whether he wants it or not, gives support to Kocharyan and as known Putin’s support and choice in favor makes fundamental importance for Kocharyan.
