The director of the Center of Strategic Analysis ‘Spectrum’, the guest researcher of Davis Center on Russian and Eurasian Research of Harvard University, Gayane Novikova, told VK about the role and prospects of Russia and the CSTO in settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
Novikova touched upon question of mechanisms of calming the sides of the conflict existing today stating that “ To stop bloodshed at the cross-line between Armenian and Azerbaijani military forces not only will of the sides is required, but also understanding of nonsense of bloodshed. It doesn’t happen in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, as Azerbaijan has to demonstrate resolution to return the territories controlled by Armenians at any cost. The main problem is that the more acts of sabotage are committed, the more people died both from Armenia and Azerbaijan. The international society has a lot of other problems, and settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh is not a priority. I think the Armenian defense is tested.”
She responded to the view point of some analysts in Yerevan and Baku that only Russia has a possibility to influence the sides of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, imposing its variant of settlement on this or that side. “In general the idea that Russia is the only country which is able to settle the conflict has certain grounds, as Russia is the most serious player in the South Caucasus. Moscow considers the South Caucasus as the zone of its interests. Russia is building relations with Armenia and Azerbaijan relying on pragmatics and strategic interests of Moscow. The co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group have many times stated that only direct participants of the conflict can settle it. I think they are right.”
To the question what is the aim of American diplomacy in the region ahead of the presidential elections in the US, Novikova answered that the American diplomacy needs achievements in the foreign political arena which can be reached by providing stability in real and potential trouble spots. Vsits to Armenia and Azerbaijan were PR-actions which had to show American interest in stability. She finds it unacceptable to incline on this or that side of non-regional centers – Russia, the US, the EU.
Novikova also stressed that talks about the possibility of Moscow’s realization of the scenario of the August war with Georgia in case of military operations over Nagorno-Karabakh groundless.
“Russia at the moment is focused on prevention of escalation of the conflict which might lead to unpredictable consequences. It would be very difficult for Moscow to choose what side to support.”
