According to reporter of “First News and Analyses” Hovhan Mandakouni “Prosperous Armenia” party’s decision not to participate in the presidential election and not to support anyone, is quite clear in situational context, however, it raises a number of issues in strategic sense.
“First, of course, is what PAP will do after the presidential election: will it remain as a parliamentary opposition, or will Serzh Sargsyan continue making pressure and imposing the PAP on a new coalition memorandum? The situation is also sensitive for the part of Vardan Oskanian. Maybe he depends on what Robert Kocharyan will prompt or assign.”
In other words, the reporter explains that the likelihood in the PAP has increases that Vardan Oskanian will take drastic steps to try and take on the role of an internal opposition party, of course, if Robert Kocharian motivates him, promising to promote.
However, Mandakouni does not also exclude that Oskanian may leave the party and create his own. This perspective, however, may make the incumbent President to keep positions of Gagik Tsarukyan and not to let PAP collapse, so that he is able to influence the undesirable processes that may be within the government system with the help of this instrument.
After all, we should not rule out the version that maybe the PAP has decided to save time and power, and not to risk for the 2013 elections, giving more importance to 2018, and focusing not so much on a public resource, but on the intrigues within the government.
It means, the reporter does not completely exclude the fact that “Prosperous Armenia” could take the role of “Prodigal son” after the presidential elections, especially when in Armenia external factors have an impact on the allotting of roles, and their possible changes may also lead to the changes inside Armenia.
