If just one or two months ago somebody announced that in Fall the number one political problem of Armenia could be the question of Eurasian Union, many people would consider it an exaggeration. But today it is obvious that the issue becomes the primary political question for Armenia, because Russia considerably intensifies the pressure on official Yerevan. In its turn, this means that the inner political developments of Armenia will be dependent on this question.
Thus, the Armenian political field in near future will be divided in two branches though conventionally, but still into two parts; those who are for the Putin’s ideas and for Eurasian Union and those who are for decentralizing the dependence of Armenia from Russia and for integrating in Europe and increasing the level of sovereignty. This will become the primary dilemma of Fall developments of Armenian inner political life towards presidential elections and this will already give birth to the other inner political and economic questions that will be raised during the political developments.
In this sense, the situation is favorable on one hand, but on the other, it is quite fatal and dangerous. Dangerous in the sense that Russia takes the situation in the” to be-or- not to be” context, and this means that Moscow can take unpredictable steps in Armenia.
It is favorable in the sense that finally one of the axis dilemmas of free Armenia is being set up, which would have been already solved, if during Armenian independence just once a real organized state elite was established, that could clarify and solve state and national priorities. But better late than never. This refers, of course, to the clarification of the situation, because the state elite not only has not improved, but just vice versa. The only hopeful fact is that social elite has improved recently. This is Armenia’s hope.
