Delivering a keynote talk at Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington leading international expert on South Caucasus Sergey Markedonov has particularly covered the issue of status quo in the region. Depicting the region as “compared to Europe between the two World Wars, not with Spain after Franco, not with Greece after Black Colonels or so” Markedonov has stated that:
“I think both sides of the conflict Armenia and Azerbaijan are not ready for mutual compromises and for real resolution of the conflict. Speaking about resolution of the conflict I am not meaning here win-lose strategy, I mean win-win and mutual compromises.” According to Markedonov two sides of the conflict are not interested in compromise conflict resolution noting this is the reason parties are not interested in real peacekeeping.
Markedonov noted that the case of Safarov was used for this purpose stating that “if we wouldn’t have the case of Safarov, we would invent the case of Safarov to have patriotic mobilization” pointing to the upcoming elections in South Caucasus. “Reaction of Azerbaijan was absolutely understandable and predictable, maybe it’s cynically spoken but its absolutely understandable” Commenting on the idea that Aliyev did not consider the consequences, Markedonov stated that “he thinks about his image not in the USA or in the Western Europe but in Azerbaijan, for him it’s question number one as well as for Serzh Sargsyan maybe very tough statements on Hungary are also understandable and predictable: he thinks first and foremost about his patriotic legitimization no other legitimization in two countries but patriotic”
According to Markedonov it would be correct to target the international community- “The most important thing could be addressed to negotiators: U.S. Russia, and France: stop speaking about great success in negotiations and concentrate on very pragmatic things. The problem with the negotiators is the arbitrary function of negotiators”, noted Markedonov. In line with his argument Minsk Group states are not interested to change the status quo since for Russia that change is “very unpredictable” reasoned by North Caucasus and Georgia; for the U.S.A. North Caucasus is on the second plan and Middle East matters more; and for the EU and France European crises still suffice- “this is why they would balance between Azerbaijan and Armenia”.
Note: “First News & Analyses” followed the CSIS panel discussion Sergey Markedonov made the talk at and took notes from the official CSIS podcast published later.
