Radar Armenia spoke with international expert Shahan Gantaharyan about the developments of the Palestinian-Israeli military conflict.
– How would you interpret this Palestinian-Israeli military conflict? Was this expected?
– Among many circumstances, one should focus on two axes. First, escalation can occur at any time until the conflict is resolved and the Palestinian people are disenfranchised. But this is not characterized by the term “escalation” nor by the word “action.” This is a war, as declared by official Tel Aviv. Second, if we take a more global view, groundbreaking events, and sharp turns are taking place in the region. There are turning points in Iran-US-Riyadh-Tehran relations. And this is a drastic change in the status quo. Military operations can take a specific stop from these processes and give place to recalculations.
– Shots were also fired at Israel from Lebanon. What did this mean?
– Until now, there have been limited actions. “Hezbollah” fired rockets at Israeli bases in the occupied Lebanese territories. Israel also responded. Months ago, the same thing happened to Israeli military posts by Palestinian armed groups from southern Lebanon. “Hezbollah” was not involved. This time, there is a limited participation of “Hezbollah” and a warning and threat. For now, the situation in southern Lebanon is calm.
– In your opinion, will this last long, and what conclusion can be expected?
– The Israeli counterattacks continue. “Hamas” militants are still fighting in Israeli territories. Tel Aviv appealed to Cairo to mediate on the issue of the captives. The situation speaks of capacity, which will deepen new breakthrough processes in the region. It is widely believed that the myth of a powerful Israeli army has been destroyed. The fragility of the system, especially the number of captives, will force Israel to go to negotiations. The capacity of this operation by “Hamas” speaks of being planned for a long time in advance. And that implies state support. It is not excluded that the processes will be included in the new mapping programs of the region.
– What effect will this have on the region, considering Iran and Azerbaijan’s strong relations with the conflicting parties?
– First, let us record that the Israeli press considers what happened to be the Israeli 9/11. Which implies a powerful surprise strike and the reality of being hit by a surprise factor on Israel’s part. 9/11, however, was not just an attack and destruction. It led to a geopolitical process; the terrorist-counter-terrorist correlation with a world-order capacity spread in different eras, especially in the Middle Eastern region. The breakthrough, post-shock situation should be perceived and expected with these circumstances, new shocks, new clashes, and new political alignments, even up to a new mapping.
As for the impact on Baku-Tehran relations, political logic suggests that the involvement of the Israeli factor in the region through Azerbaijan is a threat to Tehran. Ankara will use it during its military-political bazaars with Tehran. Ankara’s statement about the change in the direction of the “Zangezur Corridor” should also be considered in that context.
