Realpolitik of the New World

To the main news of the first half of 2014 concerning the crisis in Ukraine and the Russian-Ukrainian war in the second half of 2014 come to change the news on ISIS and the struggle against the ISIS. Thereto the Ukrainian crisis is not over yet as well as the hostilities. We have not been able to completely absorb this situation, When such events that can probably create new centers of Islamic fundamentalism are taking place.

The United States of America which appeared on the international stage At the begining of the 20th century affirmed its solid politico-economical positions after two world wars, through which it succeeded in gathering around itself almost all of the world powers, including two former crucial opponent states i.e. Germany and Japan.
These countries were armless even during the Cold War and In this or that format of security system they always have been in the American field of security. Even the 2011 Libyan War showed that NATO is too much dependent on the power of the United States.

Today the West, continuing the dissolution of the Soviet Union, destroys those artificial states which were considered as USSR projects i.e. Georgia, Ukraine and some times later Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan can possibly be as well. All of these were USSR artificial projects. It will be naïve to insist that the West is doing it intentionally. These are irreversible processes, Just the strong diplomacy is availing itself of this. All of these should be implemented slowly and Which is the most important should be a part of multifunctional political steps e.g. simultaneous implementation of Ukrainian and Syrian politico-military scenarios. If they were separated their implementation would have been much more difficult. The Russian-Ukrainian war is the logical continuation of the local wars of the beginnings of 1990s as well as the 2008 Russian-Georgian war. In the same way Russia is trying to use the urge of independence of the Russian people and the Russia’s loyal people, defeats Ukraine; however this is a tactical victory. Russia is defeated in the strategic sense by loosing a vast territory and at the same time looses the opportunity to intervene in Syria and Iraq. Here the most essential strategic step is added to other strategic steps and factors, is the Islamic caliphate.

It is not a secret that today’s Middle Eastern borders are the consequences of British and French policies. The United States is changing this map either on purpose or by default. Hence a new phase for the development of the planet begins.
The Muslim world was a great threat for the West with its strong religion and birth rate. It is not a secret that the West has such issues as degradation of the value system and religion and on the other hand it has birth rate issue.

Islam was capturing Europe and changing its landscape while their more fundamentalist section started to resist the Western values By all means At the beginning of 2000s , Islam preemptively entered into the West and Terroristic activities were conducted in the United States, in Europe and elsewhere, while immigration threatened to change the final landscape. Muammar Kaddafi- the leader of Libya, even said- “Why are we at war with the West? When we can just go and take over their land by living in Europe”. As a result of a strategic process, which is hard to prove that it was executed by clear and inviolable motives, the vectors have changed and the West entered into the house of Islam. As a result of 20-year-work all the fundamentalist activities are accelerated today, centralized into one place and quickly are being depleted. Islamists are arriving in Iraq and Syria from more than 80 countries in the world In order to get engaged in a war in the ranks of caliphate’s armed forces. Meanwhile, the The government of Iraq asks for the US to return to the region for the US return to the region, while Syria, put in mildly, is not against the American air strikes. Iran is also partly assenting to all of this. It is also understood that the United States is more hopeful regarding the comparative world power and the political organizations which are striving for final formation. Such a mission can be attributed to Kurdistan, Assad’s regime in some sense, also Turkey which does not rule out that as a result of these strategic moves will become dissolute. Naturally for any extremist Muslim state secular state is more preferable than a system. By entering into the house of Islam in 2003 the United States directly or indirectly prompted the acceleration of the fundamentalist processes, establishment of organizations and centralization. ISIL or ISIS became the most viable of these structures, which Ingested the former structure and now is much larger, flexible and aggressive structure. This structure for example is gladly accepting into its ranks people from other countries, It is also using evices, which make them more dangerous, however they distract people from their fundamental nature. On the other hand, this flow weakens this structure and makes the struggle against it easier. Their fighters are not getting necessary level of training and children are manning their ranks. Statistically US-led coalition lost around 30,000 soldiers since 2003, counting the civilian casualties as well the total number does not exceed 50,000, while Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria and other countries have lost several million people and around ten million have been displaced. The majority of them left Islam, while in those who stayed the number of people who day by day desire Mercedes, Coca-cola, Disneyland etc. increases. The following saying has become pretty common in the West- “From 1990-2000 5 out of every 100 were extremists, 10 were dreaming about civilian- American life, while the rest were undecided”. Today 10 out of every 100 are extremists, 10 are neutral, while 80 hates fundamentalism and dream about American life. Inhuman living conditions, men slavery, slave trade and other factors in the territories held under extremists contributes to this phenomenon.

The fact that in 2013 terrorism increased by 44% and victims- by 61% comprising 18 000 people also contributes to this phenomenon. In Afghanistan a mother killed 25 Taliban as a revenge for her son- this is today’s reality. In September-October of 2014 fierce battles were taking place for the Syrian town Kobani. Turkey had a clear anti-Kurdish stance and was obstructing the deliver of arms to the Kurds thus hampering the victory in Kobani. US and its allies were conducting air strikes which even though successful however without necessary land forces accompaniment could not achieve success. However in this hard and heart-breaking situation a very important and clear issue was being resolved. Islamists suffer heavy casualties, however by continuing the battles they are simply weakening. Meanwhile the suffering Kurds are reuniting more and will act more productively even against Turkey if in the future they receive the same Western aid. The fact of the Eastern value system, the moves on purpose to destroy the Islamic value system should be added as well. These moves are the computer and the Internet with their restricted domains and the drugs, which are being cultivated and gradually used, plus good cars and other material means. Today the profile of the Kurdish state is being more clearly outlined, which of course is going to be more secular state; today women there have equal rights as men and live in a minimal religious life. The question of the Kurdish statehood is neatly planned and is being implemented for around a decade. Even a year ago a small assistance given to the Kurds aroused Ankara’s anger, while today Peshmerga is crossing Turkish territory.

All of this is not coincidental.

Islamists are trying to give a battle while assembling their last forces, not understanding that they are being depleted faster. Meanwhile Europe is shaking- from one side protests and clashes between Islamists and nationalists, from the other side extremists are leaving Europe for their sacred war. At this moment around 11 thousand European and American citizens are filling up their ranks. European special services can greatly benefit from all of this. Here is the neat plan, the great influence which is hard to grasp at first and here it is where one cannot separately look into the situation in Ukraine. This joint strategic program The steps of which are completing each other gives an opportunity to suppress the Shiite flank by making Iran more pliable, weakening Russia’s and China’s influence in the region and other far-reaching strategic political and economic issues. US rapprochement with Iran is becoming quite obvious.

The United States has officially announced that it wishes to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan. It will certainly contribute to the activation of Islamist, Taliban and other movements in Afghanistan and Pakistan. This will spread into the former Soviet Republics in Asia with a chain reaction; the same is also possible in the western Iran and western China. These destabilizing centers will create wholly different politico-military situation in the world. Not taking into account whether there will be any type of new joint Islamic caliphate in these territories, or there will be separate centers that will drive their own policy, the situation will turn very dangerous first of all for Russia, China and Iran. In early November of 2014 very shocking terrorist action took place in Pakistan. This can be considered as the start of that process. The most probable scenario of development might be the following China, Russia and Iran should permanently have troops stationed in their neighboring countries, make war, even if not conventional, rather so called “green midgets”. Russia should be involved in a constant war in Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan. Everything will become more complex if the same situation which occurred in Ukraine will occur in Kazakhstan where new opportunities like Novorossiya will open for the Russian Federation. Vladimir Putin has already announced about Kazakhstan being an artificial state. He clearly omprehends the logic of this- he talks about manageable chaos. Vast resources will be allocated for the struggle against them, if it drags out these three states will weaken and will have to cooperate with the United States. Based on this scenario in order to withstand the dangers and not to be left out from these geopolitical situations Europe will militarize again. This process has already begun. At the same time the Islamic secular states will gain momentums, the creation process of Kurdistan will become more tangible, India might be involved in military actions this time as an US ally- counterweighing China. Extremist Islamists will have more casualties in combats, while in the long-term they will not be able to recover their loses. It is not coincidental that the President of the United States is talking about long struggle up to 10 years. It is right that they are still one billon, yet they are fighting against themselves and the moderate Islam is in the midst of ethnic upheavals.

In the world the more powerful and the more aggressive state is infringing the accepted laws and norms , destroys stereotypes. Moreover, this state creates new laws by which the world is living. This of course generates hatred, negative association, however it is also a progressive phenomenon, at times this is the driving force for humanity. Only these countries destroyed the old systems and created new systems, even if the destruction meant their own weakening. The United States is not for forever, however the new world that it is creating can also destroy them, yet it has chances that can be put in use. It is hard to imagine that people at a time hated Rome for its aggressive, conquering and looting policy, the same is true for Parthians, Alexander the Great and other empires. It is also hard to imagine that without Rome humanity would have the same kind of development almost in all the spheres.

At the same time for those who criticize the most powerful and the most aggressive, who were not less powerful and not less aggressive in their scales, it is easier. They can allow themselves to ask just/unjust questions, they have more perceivable positions in almost all areas. As affected, suffered, resisted and bearers of other titles, for them it is easier to win over hearts. They always build their strategy on criticizing the most powerful as aggressors and presenting them as saviors, however this is not always the case, sometimes there is no difference between them.

Whether we want it or not today a new global war is started or the birth of a new world has started. This new world is created by the United States along with its allies and for them mailnly. In this logic the United States is an empire that destroys old empires, which gives an opportunity for smaller nations like us. The old world which needs to be destroyed is the world which does not accept the industrial and informational societal revolution of the 1960s. That is the history of mankind, ancients resists as much as they can, however they are due for destruction. Today Russia has appeared in that field by default, which however does not accept these revolutions, mainly it does not want to accept the weakening of its role.

We face new developments in 2014-2015, as the elements of Muslim extremism are activating in Europe. This is a new reality of the world, that is beyond the frontiers of European mycroculture. At the same time we are witnesses of a new wave of intolerance from the side of European native people. For instance, despite German people have been afraid of speaking about any National issue for a long time, a lot of protests were held by the neonationalists last year. New legislation is adopted to restrain the immigration in Europe. The new law in Austria strictly prohibits financing the Muslim institutes. Thus, the new world war is inevitable. It is believed that the East will be completely modified, the Fourth world must be destroyed, as it is hampering the normal process of world development and Potsdam world order has already been out of date. The Third world war is in the progress in the Middle East, and the result will be the elimination of the extremism.

However development is a merciless occurrence and nothing can stop it. In general it is done through blood and it is always the case. This blood is the reason for hatred against the United States, however this is the progress, which is inescapable. We should keep in mind that we got independence after a global war and many states developed only after such upheavals. Nonetheless, in the long-term the policy of the United States is an opportunity for freedom and development for small countries like Armenia. It is a blow to narrow, rotten political and even religious empires i.e. the fundamentalist Islam or the western neo-dictatorships. Everything is heading towards bigger changes- opportunity for rapprochement with Iran, more fair relations with Turkey. No matter what, what was described above with or without any changes is being and will be implemented.

The question is how much Armenia will comprehend that and will make a use of all of that or will always be enamored to its old stereotypes by solving the problems of the day.

Van Sebastaci, Analyst