Thursday, 28 03 2024
Thursday, 28 03 2024
12:35
Kroos will spend another year in Madrid
12:16
Weather without precipitation is expected
11:57
Georgia will receive 9.25 million euros from UEFA
11:38
Alen Simonyan presented the current security situation in the South Caucasus to his French colleagues
USA
11:19
“The main point of the US-Armenia-EU meeting is economic stability.” Miller
The Armenia-EU-USA meeting is not related to third countries
Nikol Pashinyan’s interview was published in The New York Times
10:22
Banks in Turkey, UAE, and China are delaying payments for Russian oil
“NATO member Turkey will not create problems in this case.” Edgar Vardanyan
18:55
The Prime Minister received the delegation led by the president of France-Armenia Inter-Paranial Friendship Group
18:36
Azerbaijan’s Sambo team refused to come to Yerevan
Mirzoyan visited the Argentine Council of International Relations
17:58
The number of victims of the “Crocus” terrorist attack has reached 140
17:39
I strongly doubt that if Turkey decides to attack Armenia, the Russian border guards will protect it
17:20
The Israeli army is attacking the “Nasser” hospital complex in southern Gaza
17:01
Armenia rejected the proposal of CSTO PA delegations
16:42
All participants of Euro 2024 are known (TEAMS)
16:23
“There is no discussion on EU membership at this stage.” Simonyan
16:04
Ukraine will receive a 1.5 billion loan from the World Bank
15:45
“I am looking for people to come and prove that it is the territory of Armenia.” Simonyan
15:26
There are demonstrations in Budapest demanding Orbán’s resignation
“We came out; I thanked you in the corridor.” Alen Simonyan about the meeting with Tikhanovskaya
14:48
The EU will not transfer 5 billion euros of frozen Russian assets to Ukraine
The French ambassador visited the Sotki gold mine with the members of the National Assembly
14:10
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan blamed the USA and the EU for helping Armenia
13:51
Weather without precipitation is expected
USA
13:32
The US State Department commented on the April 5 US-Armenia-EU meeting
13:13
“Ladaniva” will perform at Eurovision under number 8
Mirzoyan met with the head of the government of Buenos Aires
Mariano Vergara was awarded the second class medal of honor of the RA Ministry of Foreign Affairs

Putin’s New Approach to Syria?

Dmitri Trenin from Carnegie Endowment published an article on Putin’s choices related to Syria. Find the article below.

Some have interpreted Vladimir Putin’s remarks during his recent trip to Turkey as a sign that Moscow’s policy on Syria might be softening. President Putin reiterated that Russia is neither a supporter of nor an advocate for the regime of Bashar al-Assad. But he also said that Russia and Turkey were coming up with new approaches to the Syrian crisis. Since Ankara’s approach toward Assad has, if anything, hardened of late, hopes were raised in the West about the potential change in Russia’s stance.

Moscow’s basic proposal for dealing with the Syrian crisis has long been negotiating a deal between the Assad government and its opponents. The Western view, by contrast, has been that Assad must step down as the prerequisite for starting a political transition.

In midsummer, it appeared that a compromise of sorts was reached in Geneva when the United Nations Security Council agreed on a plan for a political transition, stopping short of calling for Assad’s removal. This compromise, however, soon unraveled as the United States and other Western countries reaffirmed their refusal to deal with the regime unless Assad completely surrendered. Thus, the gulf that seemed for a moment to have been bridged stood as wide as ever: what Russia envisaged as the end state—Assad’s departure—was the West’s starting point.
The Istanbul talks might suggest that those two positions could finally be reconciled. The situation on the ground in Syria has changed considerably. The opposition is better armed and better supported from the outside, and as a result it is gaining on the battlefield. Western governments, including the United States, are edging ever closer to aiding the rebels directly, and the Russians, who so far have been more realistic in assessing Assad’s chances of survival, recognize that in the end, the current regime is likely to be overwhelmed by its opponents.

The situation around Syria has changed as well. The Syrian political opposition has become more united and is now recognized by France, Turkey, Britain, and the United States as the legitimate representative of the Syrian people. NATO’s decision to deploy Patriot missiles to Turkey, Russian experts believe, could pave the way for a de facto no-fly zone in northern Syria, which could in turn become a “liberated” area and a base for the anti-Assad government. Once that government is formed and recognized diplomatically, it can seek foreign military assistance in whatever form to help it liberate the rest of the country.

The problem with peace efforts is that Bashar al-Assad is unwilling or unable to leave and that the opposition refuses to deal with him. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, meeting with Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov a few days after Putin’s visit to Turkey, tried to persuade her Russian counterpart to talk Assad into retirement in order to begin a dialogue between the opposition and elements of the present regime (minus Assad) on forming a transitional government. The Russians, however, balked, suggesting that the United States and its allies talk to Assad themselves.

The war is likely to continue, and the death toll will mount ever higher. The United States is concerned that Assad or his associates, in the eleventh hour, might use chemical weapons as a last resort. The Russians are more skeptical, apparently believing the Syrian authorities when they say that chemical weapons might only be used against foreign invaders, not domestic opponents.

But neither the Syrian regime nor the opposition will negotiate peace while Assad holds Damascus. And when Damascus eventually falls, as Russian officials now believe is likely to happen, the Syrian civil war will not automatically come to an end. The forces loyal to the current regime will redeploy to the Alawite enclaves in the west of the country. Meanwhile, the threat of a bloodbath in the capital and the other major cities will become imminent. Under such circumstances, there will be a need for not only urgent action to stop violence on a bigger scale than has been seen in Syria so far but also better conditions for bringing peace to the country.

At that point, the West and Russia might be in a better position to reengage and stop the carnage.

Maybe that end game is what Putin and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan had in mind when they talked about “new approaches” to Syria. Rather than trying to piece together the puzzle at hand, they could simply be looking ahead, anticipating future developments.

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