Friday, 29 03 2024
Friday, 29 03 2024
12:54
Starting today, Belarusians are prohibited from owning drones
12:35
No precipitation is expected, the air temperature will rise by 8-10 degrees
12:16
“Russia deceived us and tried to drag us into a new war, already on the territory of Armenia.” Alain Simonyan
11:57
“No one in Armenia has the right to hand over anything by law.” Alain Simonyan
11:38
The ideologies of European party unions were discussed at the KP session
11:19
A military plane fell into the sea in Sevastopol
11:00
The humanitarian aid sent by Armenia to Gaza is in Egypt
USA
10:41
The USA informed Russia about the terrorist threat on March 7
10:22
Russians are losing interest in Dubai
10:03
The EU will present the plan for the supply of weapons to Ukraine by April
16:04
Israel liquidated 200 Hamas militants in Ash-Shifa hospital
15:45
“The special services of Germany did not know about the terrorism being prepared near Moscow.” Scholz
15:26
“The question of leaving the EAEU is not being discussed now.” Maria Karapetyan
15:07
Clinton lobbied to swap Navalny with Krasikov
14:48
Georgian parliamentarians visited Tsitsernakaberd
14:29
“Russia knew about the preparation of terrorism for more than a month.” Budanov
14:10
Vasquez and Nacho will also extend the contract with “Real.”
13:51
The new Ukrainian law discriminates against Russian speakers, Armenian speakers, and Roma
13:32
“It’s hard for me to stay in the football world.” Mkhitaryan gave a briefing
13:13
The Foreign Ministry of Latvia declared the Russian diplomat persona non grata
12:54
Armenia will send humanitarian aid to Gaza
12:35
Kroos will spend another year in Madrid
12:16
Weather without precipitation is expected
11:57
Georgia will receive 9.25 million euros from UEFA
11:38
Alen Simonyan presented the current security situation in the South Caucasus to his French colleagues
USA
11:19
“The main point of the US-Armenia-EU meeting is economic stability.” Miller
The Armenia-EU-USA meeting is not related to third countries
Nikol Pashinyan’s interview was published in The New York Times
10:22
Banks in Turkey, UAE, and China are delaying payments for Russian oil
“NATO member Turkey will not create problems in this case.” Edgar Vardanyan

After Nagorno Karabakh war refugees will become additional “hemorrhoids” for Russia

“First Armenian News and Analysis” had an interview with the president of the Center of Political Conjuncture of Russia, Sergey Mikheev.

-Mister Mikheev, The extradition and pardon of Ramil Safarov having axed Armenian officer escalated the tension between the sides of the conflict. Do you think it is possible that this can result in change of Karabakh status quo or lead to more severe tensions in the region?

-I think this event will not bring any essential change in the region. Neither the change is possible in Karabakh issue. The event proved to awaken some reaction, but this is temporary. Soon it will be forgotten. It is sure to be inflaming the relations, but I thing no root change will take place in Transcaucasia.

-In this phase, there was a question that the measures of OSCE Minsk Group co-chairing countries are not enough for going forward in the conflict resolution process. Do you think that the mediators’ efforts are in vain or anyhow solutions will be found?

– It’s 20 years that the co-chairing countries cannot resolve the conflict. There are unable to solve it as the positions of the parties are incompatible. No effort of mediators can succeed unless they find a way satisfying both the parties. But parties put forward contradictory demands. And one can forever argue who is guilty and who is innocent. The fact is that Baku and Yerevan have contrary positions. And in such situation the mediators are practically powerless.

– You mean that negotiations are impossible to carry on in this format? Do you find the format change possible?

– This format at least keeps away from war. I don’t see the resolution of the conflict in the near future. The reason is again that parties cannot negotiate. One can renounce Minsk Group format, create a new group, two or even more groups, but anyhow everything will be the same unless the parties change their positions. The problem is not in the format or in Minsk Group.

– Do you think that in this phase, when Azerbaijan gifts pardon to the murderer having axed an Armenian officer, Armenia can gain favorable turn in negotiation process and dictate its conditions?

-I think in this situation nobody has the right to dictate. I don’t see such possibility. It is a quite impossible plot.

– Ms. Mikheev, there have been ideas that the created situation is favorable for this or that country. Namely, there is a thought that war can favor Russia to eliminate the plans of West in our region. According to you what countries can profit from the tension in the region?

-I think that in reality it is not favorable for any country. This is irreconcilable conflict, both parties show implacability, that’s why they seek the guilty all the time. How this can be favorable for Russia, I can’t perceive. If there is a war in Karabakh again, what will Russia gain? It can only bring problems to our southern borders, there will be a great flow of refugees, and first of all they will immigrate to Russia.
Russia doesn’t need it at all. The refugees will become additional “hemorrhoids” for Russia.

I constantly meet representatives from different countries and constantly hear the question who will favor from this. The reality is that the Armenians and the Azerbaijani can agree with each other. Principally any tension in the region can be favorable for the USA. It will gain a chance to actively integrate into region. It could say that because of the instability of the region, and its strategic importance for Iranian and Syrian factors, they find it necessary to strengthen their positions here. But this motive is not certain, it is disputable.

-Do you find it rational for Armenia to come out of the negotiation process?

-I think that coming out of the negotiations will not lead to anything favorable. It means to go towards war. And I think that war is not favorable for any party. This situation will not lead to war. And if one has nothing to do or has no probems, he can start a war, why not?

Translated from Armenian by Narine Hambardzumyan

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