Hovsep Khurshudyan, Senior Expert of Armenian Center Of Strategic and International Studies, published an article arguing for the right time of Armenia using “lend lease” strategy to attract U.S. providing the country with free arms supplies in exchange for certain political gains. Find the full article below:
NATO General Secretary Anders Fogh Rasmussen will visit Armenia on September 5-6. Armenia- NATO relations prudently develop in the framework of “Partnership for Peace” format, by expanding and strengthening security components. Though the fact of NATO-Armenia cooperation significantly restricts the military alliance’s members’ supplies of arms to Azerbaijan, and especially from Turkey, still NATO partners- Israel, South African Republic and Serbia continue selling armories and technology for production of arms to that country. On the other hand, Armenia’s CSTO membership is not an obstacle for the major CSTO player Russia to supply Azerbaijan with modern weapons and lead military-technical cooperation with the country, with which Armenia holds frozen, but still unfinished war. The same can be said of the CIS member Ukraine, who deepens cooperation with NATO.
Disproportionate distribution of mining resources has led to disproportional dissemination of material resources between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and the possibilities of Artsakh are more reduced. As a result, the military balance is disturbed in favor of Azerbaijan, and this gap continues to increase rapidly. True, this is not able to bring victory to Azerbaijan in case of war, but in the case of existing armament dynamics that moment is not too far. First of all this kind of balance violation from Azerbaijani side is illegal, because it violates the Framework Convention on Conventional Arms in Europe, which was recently noted in the report by the UN General Secretary Ban Gi Moon. In addition, balance disproportion is highly explosive, especially considering the fact that the necessary political leverages to prevent the resumption of military operations, which are the main centers of the civilized world can be not only powerful enough, but with the changing situation in the region (such as the events around the base of Iran) can lose their unpredictable effectiveness. Establishment of peace in the region by the settlement of Azerbaijani-Karabakh conflict is practically impossible, the latest evidence of which is granting amnesty and praising the criminal, who committed heinous murder. The survival of Artsakh in this kind of Azerbaijan is surely impossible. On the other hand, Azerbaijan no way gives up on the principle of territorial integrity. Thus the problem reached a deadlock. We have to wait until the radical democratization and humanitarian development will change the attitude of the countries and people towards the conflict, after which it will be possible to speak about reconciliation and mutual trust. Meanwhile, we need to maintain peace by all means.
There are two ways to preserve the military balance in the region: to make effective pressure on the Azeri main suppliers of arms to stop exports to the region armaments of mindless volumes, or supply Armenia with voluminous modern arms. Moreover, on the framework of this second version, taking into account the limited financial capabilities of Armenia, can be applied an updated version of “Lend Lease” (literally, lend and rent) passed by the U.S. Congress in 1941 (English `« Lend Lease Act », the full name «An Act to Promote the Defense of the United States »): Law, which, in essence, provides free machinery, arms and military equipment, material and other resources to the allies. At that times 610 billion dollar (in 2008 prices) of “Lend Lease” saved the world from fascists, now only 5-6 billion worth of similar new program will prevent war, rescuing the region (and the Western and Russian investments) from a new disaster. This is not a big price for peace. War will cost much more to the world. Although Russia supplies Armenia with significant quantities of weapons and ammunition by discounted prices, still the volume of supply of arms to the country will never go free. Even on the face of a 100 million U.S. dollar debt as well for gas supply, that country extorted a number of strategic objects from Armenia, simultaneously selling two newest systems of air defense “St. -300 Favorite” to Azerbaijan. However, the Kremlin does not provide Armenia even with these systems.
It is clear that even in the case of providing Armenia with this kind of “Lend Lease” to save the peace and provide benefits to all parties, by submitting a request to provide arms in such volumes Armenia will have to pay something, even to pay a political price for it. It could be the not-ratification of the protocol by the RA National Assembly which was signed on December 20, 2011 in Moscow about “Collective Security” to locate military infrastructure facilities in the areas of member states of the organization “. In the near future, in addition to Russia, American military base will be deployed on its area (while the protocol stipulates that “The parties can make decisions to locate military units, objects of military infrastructure on the area of states, which are not members only after urgent consultations with the other parties and their formal presence or absence “and if signed it will reprieve the prospect of NATO-Armenia cooperation). It can also be more extensive participation of Armenian military units in Afghanistan, Kosovo and elsewhere in NATO missions. Finally, it may be a chance to get out of the CSTO and become a member of NATO.
I think NATO General Secretary Anders Fogh Rasmussen’s visit is a good opportunity for the RA government to offer the idea of “Lend Lease” and discuss its perspectives.
