Radar Armenia‘s interlocutor is political scientist Armen Vardanyan.
– Blinken stated that Iran and “Hezbollah” may attack Israel within the next 24 hours. Will Iran declare war on Israel or take punitive actions to close the issue?
– I think that Iran and “Hezbollah,” at this stage, will try to refrain from a large-scale war and will limit themselves to only targeted strikes against Israel because there is an opinion and hypothesis that Israel is trying in every possible way to push Iran into a big war. Naturally, Iran tries not to get involved in it because by getting involved in the war against Israel, it will enter into a direct war with the USA. The United States has already announced that it will protect its ally Israel by all possible means, and it is not in Iran’s interest to enter into a war with the United States. That is why Iran and its proxy forces, especially “Hezbollah,” will only carry out limited and localized targeted strikes on Israel. On the one hand, Iran does not want to get involved in a big war with Israel. Still, on the other hand, it has the problem of saving its face, especially after the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Hanya in the heart of the country’s capital; Iran must respond directly in one way or another. Otherwise, this is a severe blow to Iran as well. Authority. Therefore, Iran has a problem to save its face.
– Considering the upcoming presidential elections in the United States, how beneficial or dangerous is the Iran-Israel conflict for the United States?
– It is not beneficial for the USA to get involved in the Iran-Israel war, and it has nothing to do with this pre-election situation. Months ago, in April, Iran attacked Israel with missile defense systems, and the US did everything to prevent it from turning into a major regional war. And now they will do everything to avoid a major disaster, a major regional war. There are reports in the international press that the United States is trying to convince the Iranian authorities. This is done through mediated channels, so Iran is limited to targeted strikes, and the conflict does not become a major war. Therefore, it is not in the interests of the USA to expand the escalation.
– If it comes to the Iran-Israel war, what effect will it have on our region, particularly on Armenia?
– If, however, it comes to the Iran-Israel war, the whole region will explode like a barrel of gunpowder. All the region’s countries will feel the consequences of that big war in one way or another. Some will even get involved, willingly or involuntarily. Armenia, of course, must maintain neutrality and will do so. But also, if one of our neighbors, Iran, enters into a war with another powerful country, it is instability near the borders of Armenia, which is always fraught with unpredictable consequences. And naturally, it is not in our interests.
