Radar Armenia spoke with political scientist Armen Baghdasaryan about the processes taking place in the region, the situation in Armenia and Artsakh, and the resolution of the Lachin Corridor problem.
– At today’s executive session, the RA Prime Minister said that with provocative actions, Azerbaijan also aims to disrupt the peace process and incite a new war in the region. How likely is a recent large-scale military escalation in the area, considering the deployment of the EU mission?
– Of course, the probability of a new war is high and not new. The president of Azerbaijan does not hide their ambitions; he even speaks about his ultimate goals. Azerbaijan intends to implement it, not use it all as blackmail. Now he will try to speed up that aggression. In other words, to do everything before the deployment of EU observers. This possibility is powerful. The EU observers will not be a severe obstacle, considering the EU’s expectations from Azerbaijan and Turkey, especially from the energy sectors.
– Referring to the situation in the Lachin Corridor, Nikol Pashinyan announced that he would consistently work towards sending an international fact-finding mission to Nagorno Karabakh and the Lachin Corridor. What will be the reaction of the Russian side to this if, according to the tripartite statement of November 9, 2020, the uninterrupted traffic of the Lachin Corridor is Russia’s obligation?
– Russia’s reaction will be adverse, but that is not the only problem. The problem is that this will only be possible with the consent of the Azerbaijani authorities. And Azerbaijan presents this issue to the international community, noting that there is no blockade. As long as this is the case, we will not be able to achieve the presence of a global observation mission in Artsakh.
– How effective can the Stepanakert-Baku dialogue be in resolving the situation?
– It is one of the possible options for opening the road. But I think that dialogue will fail to be successful. Firstly, Azerbaijan does not consider it equal negotiations between the parties but a conversation with its citizens. And it sets obvious conditions and requirements. Even if a part is fulfilled, the future existence of Artsakh Armenians will be directly endangered. Therefore, it is necessary to work in several directions at once. In other words, first, to try to dialogue with Azerbaijan; secondly, to try to force Azerbaijan to open the road through international pressure; thirdly, to speed up the construction of the second road, which will not pass under Shushi, but through a predetermined place. I repeat: it is necessary to work in several directions simultaneously. Dialogue can be one of those directions, but there is no need to get high hopes because Azerbaijan is unlikely to make significant concessions with these conditions and documents.
Hayk Magoyan
